The Crusaders and the Blues face off in a rematch of last year's final. Photo / Photosport
The Crusaders and the Blues face off in a rematch of last year's final. Photo / Photosport
NZME’s stable of rugby writers answer all the big questions ahead of Super Rugby’s semifinals.
What’s the most interesting storyline of the Super Rugby semifinals?
Liam Napier: Apologies to the Chiefs but it’s all about tonight in Christchurch where the six-time defending champions’ 28-0 home playoff record faces one ofits greatest tests. If that’s not enough to whet your appetite this will be the last time Scott Robertson or Leon MacDonald lead their teams.
Elliott Smith: Blues-Crusaders and who wins. Which of the All Blacks’ 2024 staff members will extend their tenure a further week and play a final? Add to that the Crusaders’ lengthy injury toll that has them with a much different side to what they would have liked to put out at this point of the season. For the Blues, it feels like a matter of if not now, when? They’re a chance to get some revenge for their Super Rugby final defeat last year and in a rarity in recent years, have the better firepower from the bench. The Blues keep threatening to find their groove that led them to hosting the final last year but have failed to do so — could this be the weekend?
Christopher Reive: Can the Blues end the Crusaders’ semifinal dominance? This will be the 14th time the Crusaders have hosted a semifinal; they have won the previous 13. One area that could be decisive in this fixture is the lineout, where the Blues have struggled against the Crusaders in recent times (less than 80 per cent in both matches this season; 48 per cent in last year’s final).
Leon MacDonald will join as Scott Robertson's assistant at the All Blacks next year. Photo / Getty
What was your favourite moment from the regular season?
Napier: The Hurricanes trumping the Crusaders in Wellington, and scenes in Fiji from the Drua successes at home.
Smith: Probably round 12 in mid-May. A weird one to single out but it was the round that finally felt like Super Rugby Pacific might be clicking. The Reds beat the Chiefs, the Crusaders and Blues fought an absorbing game and the Brumbies and Highlanders ran in a 80-point tryfest in Canberra which felt like it was 1997 all over again. In a year where Australia failed to again noticeably close the gap on the top NZ sides, that round was a step forward. More of that in 2024 please. Any time the Drua won at home was pretty entertaining too. What an entertaining side they’re turning into.
Reive: The Highlanders’ round 14 clash against the Reds served up my top two moments of the season. The first, the Reds scored the try of the season with a length of the field effort triggered by a linebreak from flanker Harry Wilson and finished by fellow loosie Jake Upfield. The second, Folau Fakatava’s last-gasp try giving the Highlanders the win in Aaron Smith’s last game at home.
Who has the most to prove to All Blacks selectors in the semifinals?
Napier: Tamaiti Williams. Props might not be the sexiest topic but they will form a focal point of the All Blacks’ World Cup campaign. As frequent injuries hit the Crusaders propping stocks Williams has impressed this season. Up against Nepo Laulala, New Zealand’s best scrummaging tighthead, another strong performance from Williams should seal his maiden All Blacks inclusion.
Smith: It’s a big weekend for Finlay Christie and Brad Weber. There’s a chance only one of them makes the likely three halfbacks Ian Foster selects for the Rugby Championship, if Cam Roigard has done enough this season. I was initially on the side of Roigard having played well but not well enough to knock Christie or Weber out and that may still be the case, but Weber and Christie can both enhance their claims and provide some clarity for the selectors over the weekend. There’s also the chance Blues players may shine a little brighter as the selectors gather for their final discussions if they can knock over the Crusaders.
Reive: Finlay Christie has found himself in a big ol’ tussle for the halfback spots in the All Blacks frame and he’s likely behind Chiefs and Hurricanes counterparts Brad Weber and Cam Roigard. Both have made more of an impact than Christie this season and could be forcing their way into the squad at his expense.
Chiefs halfback Brad Weber. Photo / Photosport
What’s your most controversial/interesting All Blacks World Cup squad selection take?
Napier: David Havili’s injury absence should pave the way for Levi Aumua’s call-up. No one in the All Blacks midfield picture presents Aumua’s damaging ball-carrying abilities. Let’s find out if he’s ready for the test arena now.
Smith: Apart from Bryce Heem being the answer in midfield? Probably where the selectors go at prop beyond the four incumbent members of the squad, and how many they will carry in a squad of 36. It feels the depth is quite brittle there. Also, if Sam Whitelock isn’t fit, then there’s going to be a vacuum at lock.
Reive: Anton Lienert-Brown will play centre beside Jordie Barrett in the All Blacks midfield, with Rieko Ioane on the bench. Ioane has been strong at centre, but recent weeks have been a reminder of what Lienert-Brown brings — when healthy — on both sides of the ball. He could form an impressive combination alongside Barrett, whose offloading and kicking talents set him apart as the top choice in the No 12 jersey.
Who wins the Super Rugby comp – and why?
Napier: The Crusaders, Blues and Chiefs all have realistic claims at this point. I’m sticking with the Chiefs, though. While they’ve wobbled at the wrong time home comfort is a major advantage — as is their depth to cover injuries. The winner of the Crusaders-Blues clash could be seriously battered, too.
Smith: The Chiefs. They’ve been the best team through the season and the ‘scare’ against the Reds last week will have sharpened their focus for the remaining two weeks of the competition. You wouldn’t rule out a Crusaders or Blues smash and grab next week in the final if it’s in Hamilton, but with home advantage and the chance to send off two Chiefs stalwarts in Brad Weber and Brodie Retallick, that may just be enough to get them over the line. The gap isn’t as big as it was earlier in the season however, and the Chiefs must be on alert.
Reive: The Chiefs have been the best team all season, leading the way in points per game and tackle success among other categories, and deserve to win it all this year. It would also be a fitting way to send off the likes of Brad Weber and Brodie Retallick, who have been pillars of the club throughout their careers.
