Rugby: Time draws near for change

TV viewing figures for the Crusaders-Chiefs game fell from 300,000 in April 2008 to 117,000 in February 2009. Photo / Getty Images

New Zealand shouldn't be too worried about the serious ill-health of the Sanzar alliance. The latest TV viewing figures show the nation has had just about enough of Super 14 in its current format.

The expected late season surge in audience numbers hasn't come. The average audience for games played in New Zealand for the first five weeks was 141,000. For weeks six to 11, the average live audience has been 140,000 according to figures from AGB Nielsen.

These figures could be evidence Super 14 is dead anyway; that the fans have lost interest in a competition played across two continents and four time zones.

This might be the market crying out for something different - which, it now appears, it is about to get.

For the last few months, we have heard the New Zealand and Australian rugby unions insist their respective markets are not ready for Super Rugby in the summer months of February and March.

Their conviction is real and is at the core of the Sanzar impasse. New Zealand and Australia say they won't agree to starting any expanded Super Rugby competition before March. The market doesn't want rugby at that time and the players need a longer break - that's non-negotiable.

The TV viewing figures support that argument. Every year since 2005, the viewing figures for the second half of the competition are significantly higher than they are for the first. Interest explodes once the domestic cricket programmes are finished and the gloom of autumn descends.

But not this year. Numbers have plateaued and without a significant uplift in the final weeks, the total audience for Super 14 could be massively down on previous years.

What will be worrying the NZRU the most is that even the local derby games have not generated the interest of old. In 2008, the Crusaders versus Hurricanes, played on March 28, had a TV audience of 349,000, while 300,000 people watched the Chiefs play the Crusaders on April 18.

This year, only 117,000 watched the Crusaders play the Chiefs in the opening round and 145,000 watched the Crusaders play the Hurricanes the following week.

Those lower numbers can be partly attributed to the games being played in February. However, only 183,000 people watched the Blues play the Highlanders on April 17 - a game that was critical to both sides' playoff aspirations, while the 193,000 who watched the Chiefs wallop the Blues was well down on last year's total of 254,000 for the same game in 2008, also played in late March.

There is a strong possibility now that the average audience for the whole competition will be massively down on previous years. From starting with a hiss and a roar in 2006, viewing figures declined in 2007.

The All Black conditioning window was held responsible. There was further decline last year and 2009 is showing more steep falls in interest. It's reaching the point where the risk of staying with South Africa might be greater than the risk of breaking away.

NZRU chief executive Steve Tew revealed that far from being dismissive of a revamped transtasman Super Rugby concept, broadcasters are in fact quite positive.

"We didn't start all this with a transtasman option but it's a functional option and [broadcasters] find it quite attractive," he said.

Unless there is a dramatic change of heart by the South Africans, Tew must hope the broadcasters are giving him an accurate steer.

While New Zealand and Australia won't budge on the start date, the South Africans are refusing to agree to any expansion format where Super Rugby is played during the June test window.

"They believe we need to give and Australia and New Zealand believe they [South Africa] need to give," said Tew. "We are acknowledging that the impasse is still there and ... the clock is ticking."

What's seriously intriguing is that the NZRU in their annual report virtually acknowledge that Super 14 in its current form is a basket case.

They have moved from specific to vague in their targets to grow spectator interest in the game.

In 2008, they set themselves the goal of increasing the average television viewership of Super 14 on the numbers achieved in 2007. They also set the goal of achieving an average game attendance of 19,500 for Super 14 round-robin games hosted in New Zealand. For what it's worth, they also wanted to achieve a "total level of interest among rugby fans of 85 per cent," for Super 14 and also a total intensity of support greater than 6.7, whatever that means.

These last two goals sound contrived - something a new marketing recruit dreamed up after reading a textbook.

However, at least the goals were measurable unlike the situation now.

The 2009 target is is to do no more than "drive fan interest" across All Black tests, Super 14 and Air New Zealand Cup.

From specific and measurable, the goal is now vague and intangible, yet the NZRU states in the annual report: "Overall, there still remains a big job for the NZRU to do in this area and increasing the support of New Zealanders for rugby and driving fan interest remains a key focus for 2009."

In 2008, they failed to achieve three of their four goals in Super 14. If a similar goal had been set this year to increase overall average viewership, the NZRU would be almost certain to fail.

Have they simply removed grounds to be judged a failure or have they, too, come to the conclusion that it is time for something new?