KEY POINTS:
In Wellington last week, elite coaches realised the extent of the player drain.
Graham Henry was helping the five New Zealand Super 14 coaches narrow selections for their squads.
As they pored over potential candidates, it became apparent the country was painfully lacking in depth in various positions.
So much so, that it led to some rudimentary research and number crunching and a reasonably accurate assessment that 250 New Zealanders are playing professionally overseas.
That led to Henry telling The Dominion Post: "There are now more guys playing professional rugby overseas who are New Zealanders than there are professional rugby players in New Zealand.
"Although you can get a side together, it is not the same quality of player who will miss out who was missing out in the past."
For there to be more professionals offshore than there are playing here is a staggering statistic. We could quibble about the terms of reference. What levels of rugby are we comparing?
There are 140 players contracted to Super 14 franchises in New Zealand but what about the 35 players on wider training contracts - should we consider them professionals? Then there are players who make a living out of provincial rugby but hold down other work - are they professional?
And what level of rugby overseas should be considered professional? Clearly the Guinness Premiership, the Top 14 and Magners League are full-time professional leagues as is the Top League in Japan.
But what about the Italian league, National League One in England and D2 in France? There are significant numbers of New Zealanders in those semi-professional divisions who are making a living.
Yet many New Zealanders in those leagues were unable to make a provincial squad and certainly were nowhere near Super rugby.
"Whatever the number," says New Zealand Rugby Union chief executive Steve Tew, "a significant number of New Zealanders are playing offshore.
"Are they all good enough to play Super 14? No, probably not. Is getting Josh Blackie back to New Zealand a good deal? Yes. Would we like to see some more players come back to New Zealand? Yes."
This weekend's Heineken Cup games provided a golden opportunity to assess the volumes of New Zealanders playing offshore. There were New Zealanders in nearly all 24 teams and many more playing in the second-tier European Challenge Cup.
When Munster played Montauban in the opening game, Doug Howlett, Rua Tipoki and Lifeimi Mafi were in the Irish ranks. Nick Williams would have played but for injury, while Shannon Paku lined up for Montauban.
In the other Pool A game, Clermont included Simms Davison and John Senio who opposed Luke McAlister in the Sale team.
Leinster had Isa Nacewa, Toulouse Byron Kelleher, Wasps Riki Flutey, Mark van Gisbergen, Joe Ward and Mark Robinson. The Ospreys Jamie Nutbrown, Marty Holah, Sonny Parker and Gwent had Tom Willis as captain and James Arlidge.
Aaron Mauger was in Leicester's midfield, while Cardiff had Ben Blair at fullback and Paul Tito at lock. The list goes on. Carlos Spencer and Bruce Reihana were in the Northampton squad that hammered Toulon in the European Challenge Cup. The French side, of course, can select from Jerry Collins, Orene Ai'i, Saimone Taumoepeau and Ben Castle.
No wonder Tew isn't prepared to start analysing the numbers too closely - there's no need. There are a colossal number of New Zealanders playing top-level rugby overseas. Europe is bulging at the seams with Kiwi talent while Super 14 coaches scratch around desperately for replacements.
Come the later rounds of the Heineken Cup, there will be an even greater Kiwi presence. Greg Somerville will be at Gloucester, Scott Hamilton at Leicester, Hoani MacDonald at Gwent and Dan Carter at Perpignan. Chris Masoe will head to Castres, Tane Tu'ipulotu to Newcastle and Mose Tuiali'i to Japan.
Daniel Braid will also be on his way to the Reds - in a move that has made everyone in the New Zealand game realise they are under threat from yet another poacher.
"I think the Australians will carefully monitor how that goes [the relaxed eligibility laws]," said Tew. "It doesn't make sense for us and Australia to fight over the same players."
It might not make sense but the reality is the Australians need players and if they can find them in New Zealand, they will take them.
New Zealand Rugby Players Association boss Rob Nichol says: "Which country produces many of the best players in the world? New Zealand and it is only a three-hour flight from Australia.
"We have been pushing for greater cross-fertilisation of players for some time now within the Sanzar countries.
"We still want to see the bulk of the Australian teams to be filled with Australian players and the New Zealand teams to have mainly New Zealand players. But there is an opportunity for some movement of talent between the countries."
Nichol wants this movement supported with eligibility laws relaxed so players in a Sanzar competition can be selected for the All Blacks.
The idea is to reduce the lure of Europe where, once a player goes, he's lost to the national team. Rather than be a threat, the Australian and possibly South African markets could be a blessing. They could offer New Zealand players an offshore adventure that allows them to continue their All Black careers.
Tew says a change of the eligibility laws is on the agenda but will not be discussed until the revamped shape of Super rugby is known.
By next year, the pressure will really be on to make change. Australia
and South Africa are not going to offer the same volumes of opportunity as Europe and Japan.
But if Super 14 becomes Super 18, and eligibility relaxed, the new teams - whether Japanese, American or Argentinian - might be able to sign up bigger numbers of New Zealand players not offered contracts at home.
That has to be preferable to the current situation where the exodus is really starting to hurt. Auckland's veteran prop Nick White felt there was a decline in quality in Super 14 and Air New Zealand Cup this year. And the culprit was the vast numbers of new players forced into teams a year or two before they were ready as a consequence of the migration.
That point has not been missed by Henry who made the most chilling observation last week.
"At the moment, we are holding our head above water," he said, "but with so many players leaving you have to wonder how we will be in a couple of years."
