Rugby: Scene set for big raids

Daniel Braid was snapped up by the Reds as a marquee player. Photo / Getty Images

An explosive battle for players is set to begin with an ugly imbalance where Australia will have the money and New Zealand the talent.

That scenario will become clear when News Corporation floods the game with an improved cash offer for the broadcast rights for Super 15.

Negotiations have a long way to go but there is certainty among Sanzar executives they will secure a healthy pay-out.

Australia will take 33 per cent of that pot - up from the 29 per cent awarded previously - and fund a fifth team.

Last week Australian Rugby Union chief executive John O'Neill warned the factions competing to run the Melbourne franchise they could lose out to South Africa if they don't get their act together.

The South African bid is well supported by their government but even Sanzar would surely not be so stupid as to site the fifth team in Port Elizabeth?

Australia will win the franchise in November when commonsense finally prevails. Then the battle for players will begin.

The Australian Rugby Union has indicated that, should Melbourne be chosen, it will relax its quota on overseas players for the new team.

Currently Australian teams can pick one overseas marquee player and a development player whose eligibility has not been captured.

Because Australia is so chronically short of talent, the ARU accepts the new side will have to recruit a significant number of offshore players.

The new team will be encouraged to recruit Pacific Islanders and Argentinians in the positions where they feel they can't get much joy from the local market. Sanzar has a mission statement in play to help the Pumas. Offering some of their players professional contracts could begin preparing them for joining the Tri Nations.

If enough players are involved in Super 15, Argentina could muster a strong enough team to make an impact. They have been snubbed by Sanzar up until now because most of their players are contracted to European clubs and therefore unable to negotiate release during the Tri Nations.

But Argentina and the Pacific Islands will not be the real market for the new side. It will be New Zealand.

If the new side has licence to recruit offshore players, New Zealand can expect to be raided.

Daniel Braid and Sosene Anesi have already been poached as marquee players in their last year and player agents say more will follow.

There is also a real chance that, in time, the ARU will be forced to allow its existing teams greater freedom to recruit non-eligible Wallabies.

The Reds have been a disaster for years, many of their problems caused by the arrival of the Force and the competition for players. They have a legitimate case that they too would benefit from a more relaxed regime where they can bolster their ranks with foreign blood.

It has the potential to be a perfect storm for New Zealand. Relaxed quotas combined with Australia being awash with money. They might even allow private equity into their set-up giving them greater resource.

The Australians will know by November if they have the new franchise, just as the New Zealand Rugby Union demote four provincial sides.

Some of the 100 or so players in the relegated squads will stay put. Life as a semi-professional in New Zealand will do them fine.

But many, probably the majority of those players, will be young, ambitious and hopeful of cracking Super Rugby.

New Zealand will not necessarily be the easiest route to fulfil those goals so heading across the Tasman will make sense.

The Australians will love it. New Zealand will have done the hard work - poured the cash in to give these players conditioning, skills and experience.

Bruce Sharrock, of leading player agency World in Motion, believes at that point, the NZRU will come under intense pressure to amend its own eligibility laws.

"We have seen a little bit of activity from across the Tasman in terms of recruiting marquee players," he says. "The anomaly is that the likes of Braid and Anesi are not eligible to play for New Zealand."

Sharrock, like many in the game, believes Super 15 would be enhanced by greater cross-pollination of players between Sanzar nations.

If Australia are going to have licence to poach a greater number of Kiwis, why not accept it will happen but lessen the impact by allowing those who go to still be able to play for the All Blacks?

The policy of picking those based in the Northern Hemisphere should remain intact as player release from there will always be an issue.

But that isn't an issue if players are involved in a Sanzar competition.

The All Black coaches will be able to monitor the form of, for example, Dan Carter just as well if he's playing for the Waratahs as they would if he's playing for the Crusaders.

What the NZRU worry about is control. Under their contracting model they say the All Black coaches have a direct line and influence over the Super 14 coaches, who in turn have a direct line and influence over the provincial coaches.

Everyone is working together for the greater good, which means they can make decisions that are in the best interests of the players.

They say that, but in reality, as was evidenced with the Wellington All Blacks, Graham Henry has no influence over the provincial coaches.

The real issue might be more about standards. As in the NZRU don't believe a player involved with the Brumbies will be as well prepared for test rugby as one playing for the Blues.

The strength of that conviction is going to be tested because the cash-rich Australians will soon start their shopping in earnest.