KEY POINTS:
If you like your targets clearly defined, no ifs and buts, then Auckland is your team for the big finale against Northland at Eden Park tomorrow.
In Auckland's case, a win - no strings attached, just a win - will ensure them a place in next weekend's quarter-finals.
For Northland, it is slightly more complicated. But in essence, win with a bonus point and they should be in business for an Air New Zealand Cup quarter-final.
That would ensure they edge out Auckland should the hosts also get a bonus point. The competition rules put the first tiebreaker in the case of teams finishing level on points as the team which wins the clash between the two.
And the good news for both is that they'll run out for the final game of the regular season programme.
If Tasman and Otago - the other two teams outside the top eight still with a quarter-final prayer and therefore the ability to complicate the issue - have already been beaten today by Manawatu and Wellington respectively, it will set up a doozy of a contest in which the winners survive, the losers reach for the suntan lotion.
Auckland coach Shane Howarth has called up three All Black forwards, hooker Keven Mealamu, prop John Afoa and loose forward Jerome Kaino, in his case for his 50th game for the province. And with those inclusions, Northland's chances of tackling Auckland up front just got significantly harder.
"The players are excited and enthusiastic to have the All Blacks back, but they know we can't just rely on them," Howarth said yesterday.
Halfback Grayson Hart gets just his second start in his 20th game, after Taniela Moa failed a fitness test on his ankle.
Trust Justin Collins, Northland's experienced captain, a former Auckland and Blues player, to get to the nub of the matter tomorrow.
"The fact that we have a chance of making the quarter-finals from here against a team that hasn't been on fire, especially playing down at the home of rugby, I mean, what more could you ask for," he said.
Quite so. Collins' last appearance in an Auckland-Northland clash at Eden Park was for Auckland, and they lost by a point in 1999. A repeat, not to forget the bonus point, will do him, and his mates, nicely.
Amid the kerfuffle about whether Tasman and Northland should or should not stay in the competition, if both manage to make the last eight - which is possible provided Tasman beat bottom-placed Manawatu today with a bonus point and Northland do their part - it will be one in the eye for those convinced they should be dumped.
David Holwell is 33 but seems to have been round forever. He plays his 250th first-class game tomorrow. The farmer from near Pataua, northeast of Whangarei, is coy on whether this season will be curtains. But he retains a cool head and thrives on responsibility.
Northland have scored 10 tries in their last two games, but this opposition will be distinctly tougher than North Harbour and Manawatu were. Still, if Collins - playing his 256th first-class game tomorrow - and Holwell are contemplating putting the boots away, a win tomorrow, then a run in the playoffs, would be an ideal way to sign off.
Otago have made a late change to their side for the must-win game against Wellington at Carisbrook tonight.
Centre Brett Mather is out with an ankle problem. Wing Andrew Parata moves in a spot, with Alipate Fatafehi coming onto the wing. There are six other selectorial changes as coach Steve Martin tries to find a way to win with a bonus point to keep their quarter-final flame alive. Anything less than five points and they're gone.
Wellington have given fullback Corey Jane, halfback Piri Weepu and wing Hosea Gear a game off, and Ma'a Nonu is on the bench. Still, the odds are on them completing a 10-from-10 round robin record.
North Harbour and Counties Manukau wind up disappointing campaigns at Mt Smart Stadium today.
