Rugby: Only wins can save Kirwan

John Kirwan: "I'm pretty confident the review will come out and say that we're heading in the right direction." Photo / Getty Images

John Kirwan says he is confident he will be at the Blues for a long time yet - another five years, he hopes - but the reality is he faces the very real prospect of losing his job if the results don't come over the next three or four weeks.

And for results, read victories. Kirwan will not be sacked this season if things don't go his way - that's not how professional rugby works in New Zealand, although it is becoming more cut-throat.

But the chances are, if the Blues don't win at least two of the next four matches - the Hurricanes tomorrow, Waratahs, Chiefs and Brumbies - he won't have a leg to stand on in the mid-season review and the Blues board will have little choice but to advertise his position and look for alternatives.

It will be tough on Kirwan, a likeable, honest bloke trying to do his best in difficult circumstances, if that is the case. But parallels must be drawn with how Kirwan's predecessor Pat Lam was treated.

Lam coached the Blues for four years, two modest seasons backed up with a semifinal appearance in 2011 and a loss to the Reds, the eventual champions. A year later he was gone. Lam, who knew Kirwan would take over his job, gave an emotional media interview in the Blues gym in which he compared his lot to being in the front line for his men.

"It's always a battle and, if I look at it in terms of being in the trenches and war, I sort of feel in my time here I've been out in the front line," he said. "I didn't mind being out in the front and, through all my time out there, I protected this franchise. I protected the people in it, I protected the team, I protected the players. But it appears I've taken the final hit."

Kirwan recently said he was happy with how his performance was assessed last year, but Lam said he was given a score of 87 per cent after his semifinal season, only to be considered not good enough a year later.

There have been changes to the board since Lam's departure, plus a change of chief executive, with Andy Dalton making way for Michael Redman. Kirwan will believe there is a new way of thinking now that, with a new high-performance base being built at Ellerslie, the Blues must take a long-term approach.

However, Redman said on Sunday the Blues board would have to make a decision mid-way through the season about whether or not Kirwan would be reappointed. That's understandable because it can take time to find quality candidates and, while Kirwan said yesterday he would welcome a review, it will end badly for him if he can't get his team across the line.

"I drive the mid-season review. We did it last year as well. They're very important. It gives everyone in the organisation a say," he said. "I'm pretty confident the review will come out and say that we're heading in the right direction."

Kirwan is right to be bullish - he has no other choice but to be completely committed - but the fact is the board cannot rubber stamp another year's extension if the defeats keep coming.