Rugby: Nine into four will not go ...

And then there were, um...nine.

Probably nine - for it's hard to be certain about anything in a Super 14 competition that continues to throw up the most astounding upsets - teams left with a shot at Super 14 glory.

At least that's what history - and the TAB - tells us.

New Zealand's betting agency lists the ninth-placed Brumbies at $25 to win the title. The 10th-placed Highlanders are at $150. That's the difference between a rank outsider and loaves and fishes territory.

Mathematically, only the Cheetahs have been eliminated from semifinal contention. Realistically, though, the teams from the Highlanders down are dog tucker.

But, from the Brumbies up, just about anything can and probably will happen.

Trying to predict this competition has been a fraught affair. Heading into round 12, a coin toss has proved just as effective at picking results as the Herald's four-man tipping panel.

As embarrassing as that is, it does underline just how unpredictable this year's competition has been.

Probably prudent, then, to hold fire on lofty predictions for a bit.

With the future so cloudy, the best refuge is the past. Analysing previous years of Super 14 might not de-fog the crystal ball, but it does shed light on what teams need to do to clear the first hurdle and secure a semifinal spot.

The major lesson from the three years since the competition expanded to 14 teams is that the cut-off will be extremely tight, cruel even. In two out of the three seasons, fourth place was decided on points differential. In 2006 the Bulls needed to beat the Stormers in Cape Town by 33 points to squeeze the Sharks out on the countback. They won 43-10, ousting their rivals by a solitary point.

Last year the Stormers missed out on differential after posting an eight-win, one-draw, four-loss and seven-bonus-point record - identical to that of a Hurricanes side who scored an ultimately crucial 46 more points during the season.

History also suggests it's nigh-on impossible to predict how many points will be required to make the cut. Last year the Stormers missed out with 41. Two years earlier, the Bulls scraped into fourth with just 38.

What is clear is that bonus points are crucial. In 2006 the sixth-placed Brumbies won more games than the Sharks and Bulls, who both finished ahead of them. The following year the Brumbies won nine of 13 matches but were squeezed out of the playoffs, by a Crusaders side that won just eight games but pouched 10 bonus points.

With just five victories from 10 matches but 10 bonus points to their name, the fifth-placed Blues will be hoping that trend continues.

Back, then, to those lofty predictions. With the Blues ravaged by injuries and inconsistency, it's hard to see them making an impression on the red hot Hurricanes tonight.

It's also hard to see the Hurricanes, Bulls and Sharks messing up badly enough to slip out out of the top four. That leaves one spot to play for. If games go to form, it should go to the Chiefs. Or the Crusaders. Or maybe the Blues. It'd probably pay not to rule out the Waratahs, Force or Brumbies either.

HURRICANES
*Record: 7-3
*Currently: 1st (34 points, +82pd)
*Max poss points: 49
*Remaining fixtures: Blues (h) Chiefs (a) Reds (a)
*Predicted finish: 1st - 44 points
*Odds: $4.00
In the box seat heading into the final rounds, the Hurricanes should extend their lead with a drubbing of the under-strength Blues in Wellington. Their final two matches are tricky away encounters but if they can snaffle a win and a couple of bonus points it could well be enough to claim top spot - crucial if they want to avoid going to Africa in search of a long-overdue first title.

BULLS
*Record: 7-3
*Currently: 2nd (33 points, +54pd)
*Max poss points: 48
*Remaining fixtures: Force (h) Cheetahs (h) Sharks (a)
*Predicted finish: 3rd - 44 points
*Odds: $4.00
Two extremely winnable home fixtures in a row should see the Bulls in the hunt for top spot heading into the final week. But then they run into the Sharks in Durban, who will have their own home playoff aspirations. Both teams can't win that game, although there have been suggestions of results being tailored to fit the needs of both teams when similar matches have occurred in the republic before. If home advantage proves decisive, the Bulls will struggle to crack the top two.

CHIEFS
*Record: 6-4
*Currently: 3rd (32 points, +77pd)
*Max poss points: 47
*Remaining fixtures: Stormers (a) Hurricanes (h) Brumbies (h)
*Predicted finish: 4th - 38 points
*Odds: $4.50
Much depends on Sunday morning's match against the Stormers. Win, and the Chiefs will have one foot in the semis. Even a loss wouldn't be catastrophic, with the side likely to be boosted by strike wingers Sitiveni Sivivatu and Lelia Masaga when they return to Hamilton for their final two games. If those players do return and revive their mid-season mojo, no one will want to draw the Chiefs in the semis. No guarantee they'll make the cut, but still a real dark horse for the title.

SHARKS
*Record: 7-3
*Currently: 4th (31 points, +40pd)
*Max poss points: 46
*Remaining fixtures: Highlanders (h) Waratahs (h) Bulls (h)
*Predicted finish: 2nd - 44 points
*Odds: $4.50
The Sharks have the most favourable run-in of the current top-four sides with three home games to close a season that started out strongly but stuttered badly in the middle stages. That decline can be traced to the loss to injury of fly-half Ruan Pienaar. However he is expected to be back on deck for the run-in. A lack of bonus points has been the Sharks' biggest problem and it will likely hurt them in the finish. They will need to win all three matches and grab at least two bonus points to top the table - far from inconceivable.

BLUES
*Record: 5-5
*Currently: 5th (30 points, +12pd)
*Max poss points: 45
*Remaining fixtures: Hurricanes (a) Brumbies (a) Crusaders (h)
*Predicted finish: 7th - 35 points
*Odds: $15
The imposter among the playoff chasers, the Blues have a modest five-win, five-loss record. That they are still in the hunt at all is down to their 10 bonus points - seven of which have come from scoring at least four tries in a match. The Brumbies, by comparison, have won more games but have just three bonus points and are three points behind on the ladder. Neither team is dead yet, but the loser of next week's match between the two almost certainly will be and, with the Blues' injury problems, that corpse will probably be theirs.

FORCE
*Record: 5-1-4
*Currently: 6th (28 points +52pd)
*Max poss points: 43
*Remaining fixtures: Bulls (a) Stormers (a) Highlanders (h)
*Predicted finish: 8th - 33 points
*Odds: $25
If any team has benefited from the recent run of upsets it is the Force. Had the Blues and Crusaders won last weekend the Force would be in need of a major miracle to make the semifinals. Instead, just a minor one will suffice. Much will come down to this weekend's match against the Bulls. A Force win would not only keep their unlikely dream alive, but throw the playoff race wide open. With the Stormers and Highlanders to follow, things might just fall their way. Lose on Sunday, however, and it is surely over.

WARATAHS
*Record: 6-4
*Currently: 7th (28 points, +12pd)
*Max poss points: 43
*Remaining fixtures: Cheetahs (a) Sharks (a) Lions (a)
*Predicted finish: 9th - 33 points
*Odds: $20.00
Another team paying the price for a lack of bonus points, consecutive losses to the Bulls and Force followed by a bye have seen the Waratahs tumble from second to seventh. With three matches in South Africa to finish, their chances of recovering that lost ground appear slim. Three wins from three would secure a playoff spot, but it's hard to see them getting past the Sharks next week. First things first though - if they lose to the Cheetahs tomorrow the game really is up.

CRUSADERS
*Record: 5-1-4
*Currently: 8th (27 points, -1pd)
*Max poss points: 42
*Remaining fixtures: Lions (a) Reds (h) Blues (a)
*Predicted finish: 5th - 36 points
*Odds: $12
With winnable matches against the Lions, Reds and Blues to come, the champions will be kicking themselves for slipping up against the bottom-placed Cheetahs last week. Straight wins may not be enough now, with coach Todd Blackadder calculating during the week that his team needed to pick up three bonus-point wins to stay alive. Given that they have managed just a solitary four-try bonus point all season, that seems unlikely. Still, it's unlikely the champions will go quietly into the night and they could still set up a ding-dong final-round match against the Blues at Eden Park.

BRUMBIES
*Record: 6-4
*Currently: 9th (27 points, -52pd)
*Max poss points: 42
*Remaining fixtures: Reds (a) Blues (h) Chiefs (a)
*Predicted finish: 6th - 36 points
*Odds: $25
The final team still in contention, the Brumbies also probably need three convincing wins to progress. But, with the third-worst points differential in the competition, even that may not be enough. They have owned the Reds since Super rugby began, notching 13 wins in 14 encounters, and will fancy themselves against the Blues. But, after their capitulation in Wellington, it's hard to see them getting much change out of the Chiefs in the final round. Rank outsiders.