Rugby: Melbourne newbies likely to struggle in 2011

Lachlan Mitchell of the Rebels breaks through a tackle during the Super Rugby trial match between the Melbourne Rebels and the Crusaders. (Photo / Getty Images)

There were two trains of thought in this part of the world in 2006 when the Western Force became Australia's fourth team. One lot was all gung-ho about the need to spread the gospel in a nation where the battle between the four ultra-competitive football codes to attract talent becomes nastier each year.

The other was bemoaning the fact that we struggled to have the player depth to cater for three top rugby teams, never mind four.

In the five years since, the Waratahs have been the only Australian team to make the finals, so at the dawn of our new Super 15 competition, even those passengers on the gung-ho carriage may be wondering if five teams is stretching credibility.

The Waratahs
Let's ignore the 92-19 scoreline at Christchurch in 2002, and say one thing about the Waratahs. They are never easybeats. The problem is, nor are they champions.

They've managed to finish in the top four in three of the past five seasons, but only the blinkered would have seen them as potential winners on any of those occasions. Hindsight helps me say that, but there has always been something lacking in comparison to that Crusaders/Bulls type aura. Nothing much changes in 2011, even if Kurtley Beale has suddenly become the individual match-winning type any team with aspirations to the title needs.

The backline will pose threats but the pack desperately needs an on-song and fit Wycliff Palu to give them a fearsome look. After missing much of last year, he's now picked up another injury which will keep him on ice for a few weeks. A bad omen.

The Reds
Being transposed from the berated to the admired is always the fun bit. Adding silverware to the admiration is where it gets tricky, but there was enough out of last year's Reds resurgence to indicate they are now legitimate title contenders.

Sure, they won't now be able to ambush anybody simply by being underestimated, but the feeling at Ballymore is that the squad have enough skills and depth to beat anybody anywhere. Talk of the Reds generally focuses on Quade Cooper and Will Genia but the return of skipper James Horwill and three-quarter Digby Ioane from injury, as well as the emergence of James Slipper as a prop to watch, helps ensure the star halfback duo have some firepower all around them. Their biggest task might be to fill the void left by the very effective Daniel Braid.

The Brumbies
As when Stephen Larkham and George Gregan left the Brumbies, that same feeling of despair may be hovering over Canberra with George Smith in France and Stirling Mortlock in Melbourne. Both are beyond their best but there's no doubt the bank of experience hands out cash in many different ways. Matt Giteau's still there, Adam Ashley-Cooper is an outstanding player and Stephen Moore is as hard as they come, but there's just not enough obvious quality that tells you they'll be bothering anyone in July.

For the team that had a reputation as entertainers, the telling statistic of last year was that they managed to get only three bonus points for scoring four tries. It means they are on the search for some magic and the wand won't wave regularly enough this year.

The Force
If the rest of the Force squad had the quality and depth they possess in the backrow, fans would be buying finals tickets now. I'm not seeing a queue.

Admittedly, this time last year Ben McCalman was unheralded and he ended up as Wallaby number 8, so maybe there's a few smokeys over there in Perth, but they'll need more than a few.

James O'Connor is world-class but he's the only man in the backline who is. Nick Cummins is an improver, Cameron Shepherd a talented player who has the burden of some off-field issues, but outside that trio, the attacking potential looks a bit pedestrian. They do have two of the best names in the competition in hooker Siliva Siliva and lock Phoenix Battye. I think they'll need to be grateful for small mercies.

The Rebels
Coach Rod Macqueen's stated aim for the new boys in the tournament is "to be competitive". If they manage it they'll have over-achieved.

Their progress will make for interesting viewing but once injuries take their inevitable toll, it won't be pretty viewing. They have an acceptable first XV with the likes of Mortlock, Greg Somerville and Welshman Gareth Delve but there's a good number of the extended squad who haven't quite cut the mustard elsewhere.

In the new Super 15, 15th might be as competitive as they're allowed to get.