The Blues lead the New Zealand conference, but there is widespread pessimism about that continuing.
Why? Two main reasons. They are playing modest rugby on their way to the Super 15 playoffs and meet the benchmark Crusaders tonight in a duel for the conference lead.
A range of results and
performances this weekend could have the Blues leading the entire competition - or fifth and twitchy about securing a playoff berth in the final round.
Those sorts of permutations loom each year as the competition heads towards the finals and the public ruminates about the finals' location of their favourite team.
The Blues' main target is extricating themselves from the flatspot they have hit at exactly the wrong time in the competition.
Three defeats on the bounce and an away meeting at Timaru against the All Black-filled benchmark Crusaders is not anyone's recipe for reversing the trend.
But few felt the Blues would beat the Crusaders in the opening round of the Super 15 either. Under the assorted vagaries of the new system, that 24-22 win at Eden Park has been the Blues' solitary victory against teams now in the top six.
They lost to the Reds, Stormers and Sharks, and have not played the Bulls. Now they are are in a three-stretch funk, unable to free themselves to find one more victory to give them a cast-iron playoff seat.
For much of the series they have benched the erratic frivolity which has been associated with their play in recent years.
They have added some caution to their repertoire but now seem unable to shed that new layer.
Selection options in the pack have been restricted by injury and there have been unfruitful searches for the magic in the backline.
Those dice have been rolled again with Stephen Brett's 13 minutes from the bench last round returning him to first five-eighths against his old mob.
In truth, it may have been Luke McAlister's subdued clout in that role last week which provoked the switch.
The Blues have been missing Isaia Toeava big time, but the Crusaders have been without Israel Dagg as well. No Richie McCaw for the red-and-blacks is countered by no Daniel Braid for the Blues and so on.
Injuries and form dips are all part of the Super 15 fabric.
But assistant coach Bryce Woodward feels the return to the twin backline pivots of Brett and McAlister offers better attacking options.
"We realise if we sit back and kick the ball away like we did against the Chiefs we will come second," he said.
The Blues are in no doubt most of the public expect them to come second tonight at Fraser Park.
That view might just stir the side enough to find the right balance of hard work and freedom of expression.
It is unlikely, especially from a Crusaders side which look as if they are working into form and have a serious score to settle for their blunders at Eden Park in February.
But a victory tonight and another next week at home against the Highlanders would have the Blues starting to tick the boxes and looking with renewed enthusiasm at the finals.
The acid has to be on the men with small numbers on their jerseys, the so-called tight five, to set the foundations for their sides.
Young bull Sam Whitelock, back playing after months out with injury, is against Ali Williams, who is feeling his way through his comeback year.
His last two years have been wrecked by Achilles tendon injuries.
He is back in Blue, but yet to stamp out an all-round game - sounds a bit like the franchise really.
Crusaders v Blues
Timaru, 7.35 tonight
Tom Marshall
Brent Ward
Robbie Fruean
S. B. Williams
Zac Guildford
Dan Carter
Andy Ellis
Kieran Read (c)
Matt Todd
G. Whitelock
Sam Whitelock
Brad Thorn
Owen Franks
Corey Flynn
Ben Franks
Tom McCartney, Tevita Mailau, Chris Lowrey, Sean Polwart, Chris Smylie, Lachie Munro, Sherwin Stowers.
Jared Payne
Joe Rokocoko
Benson Stanley
Luke McAlister
Rene Ranger
Stephen Brett
Alby Mathewson
Peter Saili
Luke Braid
Jerome Kaino
Ali Williams
Anthony Boric
John Afoa
K. Mealamu (c)
Charlie Faumuina
Quentin MacDonald, Wyatt Crockett, Luke Romano, Jonathan Poff, Willi Heinz, Mat Berquist, Ryan Crotty.
* wynne.gray@nzherald.co.nz
Rugby: Flat Blues fight odds against Crusaders
Stephen Brett is back in the Blues No 10 jersey against his old mob at tonight's match in Timaru. Photo / Getty Images
The Blues lead the New Zealand conference, but there is widespread pessimism about that continuing.
Why? Two main reasons. They are playing modest rugby on their way to the Super 15 playoffs and meet the benchmark Crusaders tonight in a duel for the conference lead.
A range of results and
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