Rugby: Fast starts not a good form guide

On the charge: Ali Williams. Photo / Getty Images

The opening weekend of Super Rugby has an uncanny knack of delivering an entirely false picture of how the competition is likely to play out.

Rarely does an emphatic opening day performance provide an indicator of potential and conversely the most successful side in the competition's history, the Crusaders, have an average record when it comes to their first encounter.

They have lost seven times on opening day - taking particularly bad defeats to the Waratahs in 2004 (43-19) and to the Brumbies in 2005 (32-21).

In fact, typically, the first four weekends of Super Rugby action in any given year have been random, providing unreliable evidence as to the likely contenders.

It's been this way from the off. In 1996, the Queensland Reds topped the table - winning nine games. But they were shredded in their first outing, taking a 57-17 hiding from the Highlanders.

The southern men for their part enjoyed a supremely good first three weeks - beating Transvaal 29-15 and Western Province 52-25, but managed to win only two more games after that.

The Hurricanes were the surprise package in 1997, making the playoffs when they were little-fancied before the season began. They were even less fancied after five weeks - losing three times, to the Chiefs (who finished 11th) in their opening game, and then to the Crusaders in their second game, before falling again to Natal in their fifth. The Crusaders were one from four in 1998 before going on to win the title - losing to the Chiefs in roundone and then being crunched 31-5 by the Blues in round four.

The Brumbies lost to what proved to be an ordinary Blues side in the first game of 2000 before hosting the final, while the Blues made an incredible start in 2002 when they posted a record 60-7 win against the Hurricanes before losing their next two and finishing an unconvincing sixth. Their collapse was nowhere near as dramatic as the Waratahs, who began that season with a supreme display against the Chiefs. The Australians won 42-25 and then took out their next five games, defeating both the Bulls and Stormers in Africa before smoking theCats and Sharks in Sydney.

But their season ended in ignominy when they were humiliated 96-19 by the Crusaders in the final round-robin game and then 51-10 by the Brumbies in the semifinals. In 2004, the Crusaders required a major turnaround after being thrashed twice at home in their opening games.

The Waratahs won the opening clash in Christchurch and then the Blues arrived the following week to win 38-29, a game made famous by the hat-trick scored by Rupeni Caucaunibuca and the miracle try by Carlos Spencer in the final minute where he flipped the bird to a hostile crowd as he touched down.

The Crusaders scrambled back to make the final- a game they threw away when fullback Ben Blair had a nightmare in Canberra and virtually handed the game to the Brumbies. The Crusaders lost their opener in 2005 as well - one of only two defeats they suffered en route to collecting their fifth title.

No side does the late run on the rails better than the Chiefs. Their best season was 2009 when they made the final. But after three games, no one was backing them to be even close. They lost to the Crusaders in their opening game and then the Waratahs in Sydney before the Sharks beat them in Hamilton. There have been obvious exceptions.

The Crusaders beat the Highlanders in their opening game in 2002 and went through the season undefeated. The Bulls and Stormers started 2010 with convincing wins and went on to play each other in the final, while the Brumbies crushed the Crusaders 51-16 in the opening game of 2001 and neverlooked back.

But the truth of Super Rugby is that it's all pretty much phony war stuff until about round five. It is only then that the real contenders emerge; the chaff separates from the grain and the picture of who is actuallywell-coached,well-selected and well-drilled actually begins to take shape.

Super young guns ready to fire
Charlie Faumuina
Blues
Imagine a Portaloo and then mentally fill it with bricks and you are getting close to having a good handle on the physical dimensions of Blues prop Charlie Faumuina. Now stick the whole lot on one of those funny trolleys so it can be moved around and that is pretty much Faumuina. The Blues lost experience and mobility when John Afoa signed with Ulster but, had he stayed, he'd have had a battle with Faumuina for the No 3 shirt this season. The latter, at 128kg, is the better technical scrummager and that bit heavier and stronger to trouble opponents. He's also a damaging ball carrier - not in the same league as Afoa in terms of his ability to cover the ground and motor away but, from close range, Faumuina thunders through the first tackle and can grind 10 metres when others would be lucky to steal two. He has enjoyed a good pre-season and like all the heavy cattle, needs to be on the paddock each week to build his form.If he can stay injury-free, he'll buckle a few scrums and put his handup to join Owen and Ben Franks and Tony Woodcock in the All Black mix.

Brodie Retallick
Chiefs
There have been plenty of hotly promising young men who have come through the New Zealand under-20 programme and supposedly been the next 'big thing'. The forecasts have been hit and miss - Aaron Cruden and Sam Whitelock living up to the hype; Daniel Kirkpatrick and Julian Savea perhaps not. Interestingly the noise about Brodie Retallick last year was firm but muted. There were plenty of good rugby judges all categorical that the Hawke's Bay lock was the pick of the world champion under-20s and destined to play test rugby. The 20-year-old is 2.04m and 121kg-uncommonly large for a New Zealand lock with plenty of time to physically mature. Bay of Plenty have signed him and the Chiefs didn't hang around either, contracting the youngster at the expense of his cousin Culum. Might be a year too early but then again, Whitelock made his test breakthrough at the same age and inhis rookie Super Rugby season.

Beauden Barrett
Hurricanes
It's not the done thing to question the quality of the first fives who stood in for the injured Daniel Carter last year. Cometh the hour, a combination of Colin Slade, Aaron Cruden and Stephen Donald saw the All Blacks scrape over the line. But Slade was a bag of nerves every time he played and, as composed as Cruden was in the semifinal, he ran laterally and upright for his 30 minutes in the final and was easy pickings for the French. Beauden Barrett is still only 20 and barely tried at this level but his talent is undeniable. He kicks off both feet and has an innate understanding of where his team needs to be. Everyone who has seen him play has been impressed-certainly the Blues have been as they tried unsuccessfully for two years to bring him to Auckland. Keep an eye on Barrett making it into the end of year tour party where the All Blacks may look to take a fewyoungsters for the experience.

Quentin MacDonald
Crusaders
The 23-year-old hooker has battled with injury for most of his senior career and not had much of a go at establishing his credentials at this level. That could change this year as MacDonald earned the start against the Blues, making it clear incumbent hooker Corey Flynn is not going to retain his jersey as of right. MacDonald is mobile and has improved his throwing immeasurably since he made his debut for Tasman in 2007. At 102kg, he could do with more bulk to be higher impact at the collisions but he lacks nothing in attitude or work rate. The All Blacks need to find the next generation of hookers as the their three World Cup stars - Keven Mealamu, Andrew Hore and Flynn- are all in their 30s, with the latter two far from certain to be considered automatic test prospects. If MacDonald can show accuracy and carry the ball strongly-he'll be in the frame.

Nasi Manu
Highlanders
There is plenty to admire about 23-yearold Nasi Manu and this could be the season where he really comes of age. He played well for the Highlanders last year - carrying the ball with a bit of sting and pulling off the occasional thunderous tackle. He has the opportunity to build onthat again, as he's likely to be part of a combination that will include Adam Thomson and James Haskell. The speed and experience of those two should allow Manuto pick and choose where he shows up and range that little bit wider. He's 112kg and plays like it - knocking big men down when he runs at them. The All Blacks never really had a reserve No 8 last year and struggled when Kieran Read was unavailable. Victor Vito has pace and athleticism but Manu has that obvious hunger and physical edge.

Fatigue factor faces Nonu

As challenges go, Ma'a Nonu has set himself a near impossible one, attempting as he will to play for 20 months without a break. It's a mountainous task and it will be a small miracle should he reach December having played a major role with the Blues and held his jersey for most of the test season. Nonu, in his indomitable fashion, fancies he can pull this off - that he can continue to blast big holes in every defence he meets from now until the final All Blacks game in December. He feels the quality of rugby in Japan was similar to that of the ITM Cup and, as a consequence, he has returned to Auckland feeling fresh and eager toget stuck into Super Rugby.

"I played every game bar one," he says of his campaign with the Ricoh Black Rams. "I really enjoyed it. I'm feeling okay. I battled a bit in December, I must say. I kind of hit the wall but I got over that and played a few more games. I'll join the Blues camp on Monday and assess how it goes-get some training under my belt. I want to be fully fit to go." The Blues are making noises that they are just as eager to get him on the field. Nonu arrived in New Zealand on Friday morning, headed straight to Wellington to dump some kit and was back in Auckland in time to see the Blues lose their opening game.

At a push, he could have been considered for Friday's clash against the Chiefs but coach Pat Lam feels it would be wiser to introduce the midfield powerhouse in the African leg the following week. "It's a long season and it's more important [to wait] until Ma'a's ready. We're playing next Friday soit is a quick turnaround," said Lam.

In a climate of militant player welfare cultures, it is refreshing that Lam and Nonu are so eager to get the midfielder into action. But in this case, caution may be justified. Nonu was playing pre-season games with the Hurricanes in late January last year. He endured an emotional campaign where the Hurricanes were poor and he was eventually sacked, despite good form in May and June. He also hadSonny Bill Williams gunning for his

All Black jersey yet he responded superbly by playing career best rugby. Nonu was one of the stars of the World Cup and a deserved nomination for IRB Player of the Year. The emotional and physical toll of the season was huge but he was on a plane to Japan a few weeks after. While the rugby in Japan is not so physical or confrontational, Nonu says the training carried a major aerobic component.

No one should forget that when Dan Carter attempted to extend his season in 2008 with his sabbatical in Perpignan, he lasted only four games before his Achilles blew. Nonu may feel full of running now but there is a good chance fatigue will set in at some stage. Something might have to give- either the Blues will have to delay his entry or periodically rest him during their campaign, or the All Blacks are going to have to use him sparingly at least during the June tests against Ireland.