Rugby: Familiar favourites for TAB even with McCaw absent

McCaw's injury will not harm the chances of the Crusaders or the All Blacks. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The McCaw army can rest easy: Captain Fantastic's foot injury isn't going to put a dent into either the Crusaders' or All Blacks' chances this season.

That is the opinion of the man who gets paid to predict the rugby future, head TAB rugby bookmaker Mark Stafford.

Richie McCaw will miss the start of the crusade at Eden Park tomorrow night as well as the next five weeks of the Super 15 but Stafford, who deals in facts and figures rather than emotion, says that should have little impact on the business end of the season.

"We haven't factored it into our prices at all, that is how small a blip we think it is," says Stafford.

His reasoning is two-fold.

First, the new Super 15 season is so long, and secondly, Stafford rates the Crusaders' new openside flanker Matt Todd so highly.

"He may not be Richie, but he is very, very good and we don't think the Crusaders lose too much," said Stafford.

"You have to expect injuries to key players but you would also expect Richie to be there come finals time."

That means the TAB didn't budge the Crusaders from their $3.50 quote to win the tournament.

The Crusaders are, as usual, the best-backed team with the TAB, with the average bet on them over $40, compared with the average bet on most NZ teams being less than $20.

But Stafford says rugby punters are becoming less parochial and more analytical.

"Ten years ago we used to price all New Zealand teams a lot shorter than what they should have been because people wanted to back the team they support.

"But now with money coming in from overseas, if we do that we will get hit on the overseas teams.

"Rugby punters have become very smart."

Those willing to scour the internet looking for the smartest bets can find some enticing discrepancies, none more so than in the option to find the top New Zealand team at the end of pool play.

The NZ TAB has the Crusaders as hot $1.65 favourites for that honour yet the Queensland TAB has them at $1.95, a huge profit percentage increase.

Most agencies worldwide have the Crusaders favourites, with some having them sharing that line with the Bulls.

But Blues fans can get as much as $16 on the northerners to win the competition, while one of the best backed teams worldwide has been the Queensland Reds, who are as short as $9 with some agencies.