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KEY POINTS:
Cruise-saders no longer?
For the first time in a while, just maybe, rugby's Super 14 looks like an open book.
Making pre-season predictions is traditionally about shoving the seven-time champion Crusaders into your top slot before setting your sights on ranking everyone else.
Don't be so fast for
2009.
While it would be no surprise if the Crusaders defend their title this year - after all they still have Richie McCaw - there promises to be a hell of a fight on their hands.
The first question they must answer is whether Robbie Deans WAS the Crusaders or whether the departure of the uber-successful coach can be absorbed by the amorphous red and black machine that has always adjusted to great players exiting.
Three of those former stars, Todd Blackadder, Daryl Gibson and Mark Hammett, inherit Deans' clipboard and a legacy of success.
The heat will be on head coach Blackadder to maintain standards and stave off the growing confidence from both South Africa and Australia that an 11th New Zealand win in the 14th version of Super rugby can be denied.
The Sharks and Stormers now pack multi-dimensional threats not always apparent from South African teams while Wallabies coach Deans himself has talked up the Australian challenge, with last year's beaten finalists the New South Wales Waratahs surely the greatest threat.
On New Zealand soil, the Hurricanes have depth to be envied all over the park and will hope this is the year they can take a step further than simply making the playoffs.
The Blues, Chiefs and Highlanders will all do well to make the semifinals, with all three chasing improvement on recent campaigns.
The Crusaders have rarely struggled for consistency but that will be tested without the steadying-slash-gamebreaking presence of the injured Daniel Carter at first five-eighth.
While the champion No 10 goes under the knife in France, rising stars Stephen Brett and Colin Slade will duel for the playmaking role. The return of fullback Leon MacDonald from another head knock adds composure to the outside division.
The other notable departure from last year is lock Ali Williams, who is back with the Blues, but several young forwards appear ready to step up while captain McCaw and the tireless Kieran Read form surely the best flanker combination in the competition.
Nobody could dare suggest this is the Hurricanes' year, such is their propensity for promising plenty but stumbling at the knockout stage.
But coach Colin Cooper has a stronger squad than ever at his disposal, with several players from within the franchise borders being farmed out in the draft.
Captain Rodney So'oialo, halfback Piri Weepu and hooker Andrew Hore, once he's back from his knee injury, form the spine of a squad who can boast 12 All Blacks and a swag of others who seem destined to wear the black jersey.
They will buoyed by Wellington's sparkling form in last year's Air NZ Cup but wary that even that campaign ended come playoff time against - you guessed it - Canterbury.
Not so impressive in the provincial championship were most of the northern unions.
That doesn't always translate into Super rugby but it suggests the Blues and Chiefs will still struggle to match the quality and consistency out of Christchurch and Wellington.
Both franchises boast all-star casts out wide and pace to burn but it is chinks further in that could be their undoing.
Much focus will fall on the Blues' trouble-spot of first five-eighth, where Tasesa Lavea or Jimmy Gopperth must gel quickly, while new coach Pat Lam will hope halfback Taniela Moa can make strides this year.
An All Blacks-class tight five is a genuine Blues weapon, unlike at the Chiefs, where the young engine room will need stoking.
If they can hold their own and loosies Liam Messam and Sione Lauaki can shed their hot-and-cold tags, it could provide the sort of platform for first five-eighth Stephen Donald to show he deserves first crack at the All Blacks while Carter recovers.
As usual, the Highlanders are defiant in the face of less than flattering forecasts.
Their squad looks stronger than last year, and the appointment of reformed bad boy Jimmy Cowan as captain may prove a master stroke, but it will still be a major surprise if the southern franchise don't finish the lowest of the New Zealand teams for a fifth successive year.
The old adage "you're only as good as your last game" will cheer local supporters - they toppled the Crusaders 26-14 in the final round at Christchurch.
But those same fans may not be so enamoured their team will be the first in Super rugby to host at a neutral venue - against the Bulls at Palmerston North in round seven.
Another question to be answered in coming weeks is just how much the economic malaise crunches interest in the competition.
Getting a crowd to any rugby match last year was hard enough.
Asking fans to pack their sunscreen for a day at the rugger in February may prove a bridge too far.
- NZPA
