Rugby: Blues must grab winning streak and run with it

Jerome Kaino. Photo / Getty Images

Tot up the comparison charts and the Blues loom as certainties to take the Super 15 cash tonight at Eden Park.

Look up the results list, though, and the Waratahs have messed up similar theories for coach Pat Lam in previous Blues campaigns.

But could it be third time lucky for the Blues, who are travelling strongly with a solitary defeat and a stalemate in their seven outings so far?

The Waratahs have only lost twice, but some of their recent work has been scratchy and they are battling a rising injury toll.

Their best performance was the convincing 30-6 win against the Reds who lead their conference, their shabbiest the 3-23 fall against the Cheetahs.

You can look at other gauges: the Blues scraped past the Crusaders in a scratchy opening game for both sides, while the Tahs were punished by the same team.

Or you can look at the Blues' fortuitous late draw on tour against the Force, while the Tahs were comfortable away winners against the same side last week.

Working through these scenarios is a bit like hearing politicians from both sides of the house on the same subject.

Each side can make compelling claims and counterclaims on the same topic.

Those debates continue, though rugby games between sides of similar ability are usually won by the team with the crispest gameplan, execution and mental resilience.

The last ingredient is the unknown factor in most Super 15 and test matches.

All sorts of factors can affect performances by players, for better or worse, but their knock-on effect can be crucial.

Referees' rulings also affect team patterns and tonight's ringmaster, Mark Lawrence, will be no different before a crowd of about 18,000 expected at the ground.

"We've put ourselves in a good position, we've had the bye, had the recovery, so now it's about performing week in and week out," Lam said.

Losses to the Waratahs have bitten the Blues badly in the last two seasons and perpetuated their frustrating win-loss results charts.

This year, the Blues have halted that graph and started a climb. They've had three wins on the trot, five games in a row without defeat.

In the context of recent campaigns, that's a huge plus and they know it has to continue tonight at Eden Park.

Every other factor has to be ignored; the only target for tonight is victory.

How do the sides stack up? What indicators can we look at?

The Blues have used a bye week to recover; they are playing at home; their injured roster is stable; they have one of the better scrums in the Super 15, power throughout the backline and a recent history of losses to their opponents.

The Waratahs have travelled from their last match in Perth, to their Sydney base, then yesterday over to Auckland; their injured roster has risen; they have a makeshift backline but an invaluable memory of victories against the Blues.

Forecasters aren't bullish about the weather, but their predictions can be as fickle as the Blues.