Rugby: A pivotal problem looming

Former North Harbour pivot Mike Harris is now delivering the goods for the Reds. Photo / Getty Images

New zealand could, next year, be a rugby country short in arguably the most important position on the field - first five-eighths.

Of the first fives selected this year, Matt Berquist has already confirmed he will be leaving, while Stephen Brett, Luke McAlister and Daniel Carter are all in the balance.

Stephen Donald is also thought to be assessing his options and there is a real danger that Brett, McAlister and Carter all leave after the World Cup.

When it comes to continuity planning, it seems New Zealand isn't in the same league as the likes of South Africa and Australia.

It has always been known that 2011 would likely see greater volumes of players head offshore. World Cup years are always like that.

It's a time when New Zealand is particularly vulnerable to the foreign market and assumptions have to be made about the likelihood of various individuals still being around in 2012.

The Blues could be back at square one in 2012 with no recognised, experienced first five to run their campaign.

What will make their life harder is that if Carter leaves and with Berquist not around, the Crusaders will also be looking to recruit. Competition will be fierce.

The Crusaders will no doubt look to retrieve Colin Slade from the Highlanders - the one-test All Black having only committed to be in Dunedin for this year.

But that will leave the Blues competing with the Highlanders and the bigger issue will still remain - there will be a greater demand than there is supply of Super Rugby-ready first fives.

That brings the spotlight back to former North Harbour first five Mike Harris. Certain he wasn't one of the 10 best first fives last year, New Zealand rugby may regret their assessment next year.

Even if the country isn't bereft of quality first fives by the end of the year, the decision to discard Harris is difficult to understand.

Next year, the 22-year-old will be with the Reds, possibly even pushing closer to Wallaby selection, while the Blues and probably the Crusaders will be scrambling for someone to run their campaign from No 10.

He's shown with the Reds that he can play at this level and make a real impact. His skills are valuable; he's in possession of precisely the sort of portfolio that wins matches - accurate goal-kicking, tactical appreciation and an ability to attack the line and defend it.

On reflection, the Blues might wonder why it was they rejected Harris yet contracted Lachie Munro. The Northland utility back has some attacking qualities but would not appear to be ready to run a campaign as a starting first five. Harris on the other hand ...

The Blues can't be held solely responsible. Harris was unwanted by the other four franchises as well. That in itself begs the question as to whether the country has the right template when it comes to determining the value of first fives.

The Reds could hardly believe they were able to pick up Harris. Coach Ewen McKenzie could see that Harris had the component parts.

In Australia, they seem to have a greater appreciation of what a No 10 should be able to do.

The South Africans are equally clear that players that can kick, manipulate the game with their boot and collect points are the ones worth fighting for.

Yet in New Zealand, based on the selections made last year, there is a preference for running five eighths, men who can make a break, dance on their feet and work the ball in the immediate space around them.

Of the players currently contracted none of Lima Sopoaga, Aaron Cruden or Brett would be considered to be great tactical kickers. Even Donald struggles with that part of his game.

Other than Carter and McAlister, New Zealand isn't awash with consistently accurate goal-kickers - something Harris is showing he is.

Next year Harris will be delivering for a Reds team that will most probably be challenging for the title.

Meanwhile, New Zealand will be hoping the likes of Beauden Barrett, Gareth Anscombe, Tyler Bleyendaal and Trent Renata suddenly find their feet.

Selection mistakes will always be made but this one feels like it could have been avoided - and that New Zealand rugby needs to reassess what it wants from its leading first fives.