But just when we're about to write off the Crusaders and consign Todd Blackadder to a file marked "former Crusaders coaches", they go on a tear and bulldoze their way into the playoffs. They're on a knife-edge, but write them off at your peril.
Then there's Carter. Of the three annuals, it is the All Black legend whose plight is the most complex. And the most pertinent. The news yesterday that Aaron Cruden will be out for six months upgrades the alert level on Carter's anaemicform from curiosity to potential crisis.
Carter has staunch defenders, some of whom - here's looking at you, Steve Hansen - have earned the right to be trusted. But, and it's a big but, even the uneducated rugby proletariat are beginningto pick holes in the defence ofDC.
We hear constantly that his game management is second to none but it is beginning to sound too convenient. That his legs may not be as spring-loaded as they once were but his rugby mind remains a steel trap. The thing with statements like these is they're not measurable and therefore cannot be disproved.
More than a decade on the international circuit may have given Carter an innate sense of when to run, pass or kick, but rugby is nowadays so micro-managed by coaches that this is no longer the great weapon it once was. The days of players going off the reservation and thinking for themselves is largely over.
It's coming up 10 years since Carter elevated first-five artistry to a new and sublime level. We can get a bit precious about our memories, but Carter's second test performance against the Lions was art masquerading as contact sport.
It's time to concede that a catalogue of injuries and rugby's more sophisticated defensive patterns will not allow that Carter back. But we need more than Carter-lite, the run-averse version we're seeing - admittedly at No12 - in a malfunctioning Crusaders backline.
This might be more the Crusaders' fault. There is a solid argument that they're hurting their All Blacks more than their misfiring All Blacks are hurting the Crusaders.
Even the tireless Kieran Read is cutting an increasingly frustrated figure as their lack of punch has not allowed him to get to the edges where his offloading skillset comes to the fore (instead the plan seems to be to chuck the ball to Nemani Nadolo, and when your run-on team has nine All Blacks, as it did against the Chiefs, it's a telling commentary).
The way the Crusaders set up, with Kieron Fonotia as their midfield target man, means Carter has not been required to take on the line. He needs to, if only to reassure the public he still can. He may be the man you want on the field if the All Blacks are two points down with a shot at goal late in a World Cup final, but what about the 79 minutes before that?
Carter was a rugby genius. His supporters and apologists believe he still is.
It's a long season, yes, but roundabout now would be a good time to remind us.
