Justin Marshall: Final in Johannesburg a 50-50 call

Kwagga Smith celebrating his try with team mates during the Super Rugby, Semi Final match between Emirates Lions and Hurricanes at Emirates Airline Park. Photo / Getty Images

The Lions' victory over the Hurricanes makes the final between the Johannesburg-based side and the Crusaders a 50-50 affair.

Let's face it, had the Hurricanes won and returned to Christchurch to play the final, the Crusaders would have been hot favourites at their home and in the conditions they love.

Now the game is at Ellis Park, it's not so clear-cut.

Going back to last year's final in Wellington between the Hurricanes and Lions, I have vivid memories of all the players, including the Hurricanes, shivering while waiting for the trophy presentation. It was especially tough on the Lions and it will be tough for the Crusaders, with the travel, altitude and a hard ground compared with what they've been playing on recently.

While the Crusaders have been the team everyone has been trying to catch all season, this final is in the balance. It will be won on key moments.

Many Kiwis would have wanted an all-New Zealand final in Christchurch, but I don't think this is bad for the competition. It's hard to predict the winner and we're either going to see a team win it for the first time or the first time since 2008.

Both semifinals were very different.

At AMI Stadium, it quickly became evident that the Crusaders were up against a Chiefs side who were going to show real resistance. The Chiefs were committed, prepared to hold the ball and tactically threw everything at their opponents.

Most teams - possibly every other - finding themselves up against that sort of effort would have folded.

But the Crusaders have found real steel in their defence this year and I must admit that as a former Crusader that pleases me.

It was what the franchise's success was built on. We built a lot of our culture and camaraderie and friendship and work ethic on defence; telling teams that they had to work extremely hard to get through us.

Those traditional values from the Crusaders were evident on Saturday night.

However, I'm sure Scott Robertson and rest of the team's coaches will recognise they don't want to operate with that small amount of ball and make 100 more tackles than the opposition again. If they have to do it two weeks in a row and on the back of travel and fatigue, they may not get the result they want.

The Hurricanes started extremely well at Ellis Park but looked tired in the second half and that's something the Crusaders will have to take into account.

Obviously it was a disappointing result for the Chiefs. They felt they had a real chance to win that if a few things went in their favour and it was the final match for Dave Rennie and several of his key players, but they can all be proud of what they achieved in that semifinal. They showed their true fighting spirit.