KEY POINTS:
And the winner is ... We can look into the tea leaves, flick through the history books, cast an eye over the season's statistics or ponder whether the Australian referee Stuart Dickinson will decide the match's eventual result.
Whatever the debate, one contention will hold true as we
enter the business end of the Super 14 series - there will be an escalating amount of theory about the outcome. So here's another one to add to the pile as tomorrow's opening semifinal between the Hurricanes and the Crusaders approaches.
If you believe the spine of a rugby side holds the key to its fortunes then you might want to bang a lazy dollar on the Crusaders.
They are well placed to continue the massive homeground advantage they have had against the visitors. For spine, read tighthead prop, openside flanker, halfback, first five-eighths and fullback.
For the purposes of this knockout game, that means Tim Fairbrother v Greg Somerville, Chris Masoe or Scott Waldrom v Richie McCaw, Piri Weepu v Andy Ellis, Willie Ripia v Daniel Carter and Corey Jane v Leon MacDonald.
In all positions, the Crusaders shade their rivals. But perversely if the injured Hurricanes captain, Rodney So'oialo, does not make the start line, the introduction of Waldrom on the side of the scrum should give the visitors an edge in speed even against the mighty McCaw.
There is not much in it at halfback where Weepu and Ellis may be duelling for an All Black job while Jane, on song, is a dangerous counterattacker.
But if predictions about the rough weather and cold conditions prove correct, then set-piece control and how sides use that possession will become even more crucial. The Hurricanes scrum has been well honed by Colin Cooper in recent weeks and improved results have followed. Fairbrother benefits, as this form has kept Neemia Tialata on the bench after the All Black prop has returned from his one-match suspension.
There have been wobbles in the Crusaders pack and that has resulted in Wyatt Crockett starting in tomorrow's semifinal in a selection which should make the scrums pretty even. For the bulk of the season Ali Williams has called and controlled the Crusaders lineouts astutely while the Hurricanes do battle sometimes, as they did last week against the Blues.
But the major factor - the supreme influence for the Crusaders in a game of split possession - has to be Carter.
The All Black first five-eighths has been able to bed in several games after his serious ankle injury, he knows the nuances and winds better than any others on his home ground, his tactical and goal kicking should be better than anything Ripia and Weepu can offer.
That's the theory, but then again ...
