You don't have to be Nostradamus to predict first five-eighths puzzles for the All Blacks this season but the selectors might need the ancient seer's powers to find a solution.
There will be inevitable protests that it is far too early in the Super 14 to agitate aboutwho will replace the damaged Daniel Carter to navigate the All Blacks through the bulk of this year. However, a trawl through the credentials of those candidates suggests a massive task.
Stephen Donald, by virtue of three starts and bit parts in 10 tests last season, will be favoured to cast off his deputy's badge and don the No 10 jersey. That year's experience and investment from the coaches will be worth that something extra at the mid-year selection meetings.
However, it is easy to anticipate the rising public howls of "who will replace Carter" as the nation and All Black selectors grit their teeth about the demands of the approaching test season. That theme was camouflaged in the latest round of the Super 14 as New Zealand dwelt on defeats for every side except the Hurricanes.
The All Blacks have been blessed with extremely capable five-eighths such as Grant Fox, Frano Botica, Andrew Mehrtens, Tony Brown and Carlos Spencer in the past two decades. Fox was the most reliable, Mehrtens the more mercurial.
But Carter has taken standards to another level in his 59 tests. His brain stays ice-cool in the fury around him, he has all the skills, all the courage and the vision which lifts the rare few players from world-class to genius.
But he is laid up in Perpignan, his kicking leg in plaster, his sabbatical with the French club finished after he ruptured his Achilles tendon.
Donald got the understudy nod last season. He is a lanky, tough, smart footballer, who copes with the demands of test rugby but has some flaws in his tactical kicking.
There does not appear to be anyone else. Not unless rookie Colin Slade keeps improving for the Crusaders or the All Black selectors take a punt on versatile players like Piri Weepu or Leon Macdonald.
Weepu is a test halfback who can play five-eighths and does kick goals. It is possible to get a gauge on his five-eighths credentials because Alby Mathewson's halfback skills would allow Weepu to move out a spot for the Hurricanes where he could prove his consistency.
