KEY POINTS:
And then there were six. Or eight, if you're an optimistic type and happen to come from Auckland or Canberra.
In Auckland, in particular, those optimists will be thin on the ground after a fifth Blues defeat in seven matches, albeit a close one against the Crusaders on
Friday night.
The equation isn't pretty for the eighth-placed Blues, who have 26 points. Bonus-point victories in their remaining three matches, away against the Reds and Highlanders and home to the Hurricanes, would take them to 41 points.
On current form, the Blues taking maximum points from those matches is about as likely as Piri Weepu voting in favour of regular reconditioning windows. But even if the Blues do embark on a miraculous winning run, it probably won't be enough. The Crusaders already have 43 points while the Waratahs, Chiefs, Hurricanes and Stormers all look good to top 41 points.
The way the table has shaped up, there is only one certainty - the Crusaders will make the play-offs. But, given their form over recent weeks, a record-extending seventh title is no certainty. A fairytale farewell might still be on the cards for Robbie Deans, but the Crusaders haven't been anywhere near as dominant as their seven-point lead would suggest.
The race to join them in the play-offs - and the title race - is wide open. Teams from all three countries are in the mix. Last year 42 points was the cut-off for play-off qualification. In 2006, the first 14-team competition, 38 points got the Bulls into the semis. That won't cut any ketchup this year.
The Waratahs, second with 36 points, have the toughest run-in of six sides chasing the four semifinal spots. They face the Bulls and Stormers away and then finish in Queensland against arch rivals the Reds. The Reds were a walking corpse long before Saturday's partial resurrection against the Chiefs but they have a decent home record.
If they are to make the play-offs, it's likely the Waratahs will need every bit of the four-point lead they hold over the Sharks and Chiefs.
The vultures could well be circling the free-falling Sharks. After facing the Crusaders in Christchurch on Friday, they host the Cheetahs and the Chiefs. That would have looked a comfortable finish six weeks ago but the Sharks wouldn't have counted on the Chiefs being the hottest team in the competition at this stage of the season, having had five straight wins and taken 24 of a maximum 25 points over that run.
The Chiefs' season has been bolstered by a kind draw and a run of home games, but the manner in which they dispatched the Crusaders suggests they might be more than just hometown bullies.
The Hurricanes, fifth but just a point behind the Chiefs and Sharks, have a favourable run home, against the Lions in the capital on Saturday followed by another home match against the Force. They finish with a trip to Eden Park to face the Blues.
Given the Blues' form and the likelihood they will have already been eliminated - not to mention a bunch of their players having one eye on the euros about to start pouring into their bank accounts - that trip won't hold much fear for the Hurricanes.
The Stormers, level on points with the Hurricanes, also have a favourable run-in, hosting the Brumbies and Waratahs before finishing against the hapless Lions in Johannesburg.
It is, to use a phrase coined by Sir Alex Ferguson, squeaky-bum time. Except, of course, for Blues fans, for whom the next three weeks will just be a bummer.
THE RUN IN
CRUSADERS, 1ST 43 POINTS
v Sharks (h)
v Reds (a)
v Highlanders (h)
Projected finish: First 53 points
WARATAHS 2ND 36 POINTS
v Bulls (a)
v Stormers (a)
v Reds (a)
Projected finish: Fifth 40 points
SHARKS 3RD 32 POINTS
v Crusaders (a)
v Cheetahs (h)
v Chiefs (h)
Projected finish: Sixth 37 points
CHIEFS 4TH 32 POINTS
v Force (a)
v Lions (a)
v Sharks (a)
Projected finish: Third 45 points
HURRICANES 5TH 31 POINTS
v Lions (h)
v Force (h)
v Blues (h)
Projected finish: second 45 points
STORMERS 6TH 31 POINTS
v Brumbies (h)
v Waratahs (h)
v Lions (a)
Projected finish: Fourth 44 points
BRUMBIES 7TH 28 POINTS
v Stormers (a)
v Bulls (a)
v Force (a)
Projected finish: 29 points
BLUES 8TH 26 POINTS
v Reds (a)
v Highlanders (a)
v Hurricanes (h)
Projected finish: 31 points
