John Drake: Waratahs well placed to spoil the party

Semifinal rugby should be like a new season, with all the points accumulated during the round robin competition worth nothing.

Certainly if you listen to Robbie Deans, this is the way the Crusaders will be approaching things.

He also noted that they had prepared for a 16-week competition, including a week off for the bye. Other New Zealand teams planned this too, but theirs was more in hope than reason.

The Waratahs, like the Crusaders, have always assumed they would be part of the final party.

The Hurricanes have developed a steel and toughness which has surprised even their supporters, who have been used to seeing flash rugby but little heart when things get tough.

Then there's the Bulls. It could be said they are happy just to be here and will be aiming to upset the others' plans and prophecies.

So, anything can happen at semifinals but really the Hurricanes and Crusaders should get up to advance to next week's final.

The Hurricanes will have the home advantage, a fully fit squad to select from, all their stars in peak form and the knowledge they mentally out-thought their opponents as recently as last Saturday.

The Waratahs, after leading the competition for months, have slipped badly recently and lost three of the last five games.

I suspect the Sailor Shambles greatly affected their strategy last week. Certainly they played extremely conservatively and probably expected the win to come too easily.

Remember, this is a team based on confidence and while this may be low at the moment they are Australians and unlike most Kiwis these guys always assume the glass is half full, not half empty.

I believe they will have a more expansive game plan in Wellington and this week's backline formation will be better defensively.

The Waratahs are built on defence and I suspect Tana Umaga and Ma'a Nonu targeted Mat Rogers and Shaun Berne last time around.

With Daniel Halangahu and Sam Norton-Knight, things will not be as easy on the inside channels, so the Hurricanes may believe the holes will be out wider with the likes of Peter Hewat and Rogers.

To do this they will need to take more risks - not always a good idea at semifinals time.

Up front, the Waratahs will want a repeat of last week when they had better technique and greater power than the Hurricanes.

In fact, if the Hurricanes don't improve in this area they will come second.

The Waratahs will not butcher possession and scoring opportunities two weeks in a row.

So the Hurricanes are in the box seat, but will need to play better than at any time this year, otherwise the wounded Waratahs definitely have the ability and mental toughness to spoil the party at the Cake Tin.

FURTHER south, in Christchurch, the Bulls have arrived talking about learning from their past record in New Zealand. They have won only once, and that in 1996, against a Crusaders who were poor in that first Super rugby year and finished last.

The Bulls know that to win they simply have to belt the Crusaders at scrum, lineout, rucks and mauls, close down Dan Carter and Aaron Mauger and break the stingy Crusaders defence.

It sounds a pretty straightforward assignment after a long trip from sunny Pretoria to chilly Christchurch. Yeah right.

The other problem the Bulls may have is the lack of noise coming out of the Crusaders camp.

It's business as usual, no great hype, no talk about the final next week, just a low-key work ethic honed over the past seven years.

I won't bore you with how good this Crusaders outfit are as it has been so well documented for some time now.

The Bulls, in theory, will have a chance but unless something extraordinary happens the Crusaders will be in the final.

It may not be a thrashing, and could be tight for a while, but in the end the Crusaders will win because that's what they do.

Nothing flashy, nothing smart, just do the business and wait for the next week to complete that 16-week assignment. Quite boring really, but the envy of the rest in this competition.

So, for me, book the Crusaders for next Saturday and if the possession and territory are the same in Wellington as they were in Sydney last week, then it will be the Waratahs challenging the reigning champions.

But if the Hurricanes manufacture some better quality ball, they have enough elsewhere to again steal the initiative from the always confident Sydneysiders.

* John Drake is All Black No 865 and a member of the World Cup-winning team of 1987.