View photosKEY POINTS:
What's the chance of both the Blues and Crusaders winning their Super 14 semifinals this weekend?
In a week full of distractions about behaviour and player exodus this, for me, is what sport is all about - the challenge and unpredictable which makes sport so intriguing.
The glass
half-empty brigade will lament the stand-down of the All Blacks and disruption to the Super 14 franchises.
There will be questioning of Graham Henry's methods, even though his team of 2007 has yet to fire a shot.
There will be the panic and cry about how great the South African teams are now and will be in France later in the year.
There will be questions on the lack of form of the elite players.
I prefer the half-full approach. It's great to see the South African teams involved, better to appreciate that others outside New Zealand can actually play the game, and what better challenge for the likes of Dan Carter, Richie McCaw, Chris Jack, Aaron Mauger, Tony Woodcock, Troy Flavell, Steve Devine and Keven Mealamu to step up?
Both games will be frenetic and I wonder how the Australian officials will react. The teams that are disciplined and read the match-day 'personality' of the referees could have a big advantage.
You use what's been offered, but should the best officials be used - no matter what country they are from?
JOHN DRAKE'S SEMIFINAL TIPS
Sharks v Blues
I believe the Blues have what is required to win in Durban. How can they do it? Here's a few ideas.
Go back to the tactics of the early season where they played for field position with kicking, utilised the size and mobility of their forwards by structuring repeated attacks down the blindside channels and use the ball playing skills of Daniel Braid, Isaia Toeava and Troy Flavell to beat rushing defences.
The last ingredient will be to exert pressure on the Sharks by making them play the rugby. By this I mean when South African teams beat New Zealand teams it is usually from our mistakes, such as the odd intercept, kick charge-down, big spot tackle. That is, nothing flash, just pressure.
Why can't the Blues reverse things and force the likes of Ruan Pienaar, Butch James and Francois Steyn to make the pace? These players undoubtedly have ability, but can make mistakes and be sucked into physical confrontation when cool heads are required.
The home crowd will have high expectations and expect some razzle dazzle stuff. Finals rugby is about building into a match rather than starting too fast and risking never finding your rhythm.
Discipline will be crucial for the Blues. Halfback Steve Devine, in particular, needs to keep his mouth shut and concentrate on the positives of his team rather than the opposition and referee.
Hopefully the Blues have learnt not to get sucked into mind games and off-the-ball rubbish with the Sharks. If they do then they deserve to lose. Flavell needs to control the hotheads around him and demonstrate his all-round rugby skills. Some say he struggles against the power of the South Africans. He's better than that.
I'm surprised at a couple of selectorial decisions the Blues have made. I'd have had David Holwell at first five-eighth for his kicking game and steadiness. Isa Nacewa should be at No 12. Good judges reckon that's his best position. It's a mistake having George Pisi at fullback. I'd have had Ben Atiga.
If I was the Bulls brains trust, I'd be peppering Pisi, whose kicking game is poor, and who likes to run the ball back. This is not a game to try much fancy stuff at the back. He runs the risk of being caught behind the advantage line.
A winner? The Sharks, just, but the Blues are a real chance if they play it smart.
Bulls v Crusaders
Everything points to a Bulls win. The cricket score against the Reds would have initiated a full investigation of match-fixing in another sport but has created an expectation from the locals of another easy win, even against the defending champions.
The Crusaders have been lacking stability at the scrum and lineout which nullified the early season form of Mose Tuiali'i and co.
The inability to construct tryscoring opportunities must be a concern for Robbie Deans.
The Bulls' new-found "total rugby" style could be their undoing. I recall the Crusaders winning a final in Canberra with about 20 per cent possession. That win was built on defence - and some magic from a couple of the superstars.
Do this vintage of Crusaders have the same steel, and can they put into practice Dean's winning plan? There's a lot of chat about the need for Carter and McCaw to step up. But, for me, a Crusaders victory will require Corey Flynn, Chris Jack, Reuben Thorne, Aaron Mauger and Leon MacDonald to return to form.
Jack has been injured but his form for the past year has been way below his reputation. Flynn needs a haircut - and to do his job at lineout and scrum, rather than arguing with the officials.
Thorne needs to make more tackles and take pressure off the others at the lineout.
The Bulls will target Mauger as a channel through which to attack. If he tackles and stops the Bulls, the momentum could change. MacDonald's challenge will be to help Carter with a kicking game - look to use him as first receiver in some instances, just to break up the Bulls' defensive pattern.
The Crusaders have the firepower - but do they still have the mental hardness and total will to win as in previous years?
