KEY POINTS:
Down Canterbury way they are looking for a final success and a fitting tribute to see Robbie Deans off to Australia while further north Graham Henry and co have named an interesting squad for the Tri-Nations with only a number of Crusaders to be added.
For their part,
the Waratahs deserve the opportunity to play in the Super 14 final. Their defence has been outstanding and after a grim attacking start to the season, their potency via the likes of Lote Tuqiri and Rob Horne have shown they can score points from set piece and, more importantly, from turnovers of the opposition ball. I've belted their jellyfish scrum in the past but frankly this area of their game has improved vastly this season. Significantly, it's an area where the Crusaders don't excel at the moment.
The lineout has height throughout and Vickerman's battle with Williams, both physical and mental, will be intriguing. Whoever of them stays cool could decide the battle for the ball. The loose forwards have the speed and bulk to belt the likes of McCaw.
The Waratahs media believe Luke Burgess is a cross between Ken Catchpole and Nick Farr-Jones - it will be interesting to see if Kieran Reid and co treat him with the same respect. Expect Burgess to be targeted as a way to stop the Waratahs' pattern and make life tough for those further outside.
Kurtley Beale will have the pressure of directing play and goalkicking. This may be a bridge too far against the wily Crusaders and I expect him to be pressured all night.
Out wide the Waratahs will have self-belief but need to respect the likes of Leon McDonald and Casey Laulala.
The Waratahs will remember previous visits to Christchurch when they played within themselves and finished losing, returning home wondering about the "what-ifs". I think McKenzie will be on to this and they may play with a bit more expansion than usual.
It's the old Ranfurly Shield attitude: you win the match, don't just sit back and defend. No team know this better than the Crusaders. Sure they are down on firepower from previous years but they have the culture and the coach to squeeze another win from what has become a vintage bottle under Deans.
If some of the Kiwi public have shown their displeasure with Henry then he has done likewise with many of those who let him down in Cardiff last year. Aside from those who have already taken off overseas, the likes of Isaia Toeava, Chris Masoe, Nick Evans and Jerry Collins have been publicly shown the door. Of the 2007 All Blacks a staggering 18 are not involved in 2008 - and remember, last year's All Blacks had an average age of less than 24 years.
Henry built his reputation on being his own man, often trusting his own instincts, being ruthless in the selection (and replacement) of players. Many established All Blacks in the great Auckland teams of the 1990s got dropped by Henry - some while returning from an away match, others at the next training or even by reading about it in the Herald.
Henry was tough but he usually had a better player waiting in the wings. Maybe he's decided to trust his old ways rather than trust others.
Masoe has been tried in a variety of positions. For me he has never regained the form of 2006 and has struggled to adjust to the new rules. Collins has been one of the best but the likes of Reid and Jerome Kaino will give better balance to the lineout where we need height to compensate for the lack of locking depth.
McCaw's game needs support from someone who is a cross between a Reuben Thorne and Collins - Reid might just be it.
Evans was one of the better All Blacks last year but lost confidence and form to such a degree that the Blues put him back at fullback rather than use him as a playmaker closer in. The last straw must have been the Harlequins' deal. Eaton has discovered life can be tough as a senior lock and it will be interesting to see if he has the resolve to get back to the top.
Toeava has played no better or worse than before, except the selectors have now seen what others have - he needs more time. Piri Weepu is just not liked by those in power - a shame, but reality.
On the flip side it's hard to believe the likes of Richard Kahui, Stephen Donald, Neemia Tealata and Sione Lauaki have shown the consistent form to head off those discarded.
I think about 10 Crusaders could figure in Sunday's All Blacks' announcement - Greg Somerville, Wyatt Crocket, Ali Williams, Reuben Thorne, Reid, McCaw, Mose Tuiali'i, Andrew Ellis, Daniel Carter, Laulala, McDonald and even Scott Hamilton could all figure in 2008.
That means the selectors have essentially decided on the 35 or so players for the end-of-year tour already. The guys who missed out will need to play exceptional provincial rugby to break back in.
Most will take the money offshore and soon be memories just as the others from recent All Black teams have become. Some are not even well-known enough to feature in pub quiz nights, such was the brevity of their close encounter with the black jersey which now allows them easy cash in the north. It seems our top players are bored with the Super 14 and NPC.
The pay structure is heavily tilted towards being an All Black but there are only 26 spaces to fill and well over 100 Super 14 players chasing higher pay packets. It seems both the national selectors and Union haven't got it quite right.
