Chiefs are not being widely talked up as a possible winner, but they should be, writes Gregor Paul. Photo / Photosport
Chiefs are not being widely talked up as a possible winner, but they should be, writes Gregor Paul. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
The assumed inevitability of Super Rugby producing two home winners this weekend and a Blues versus Crusaders final, is not the certainty it is being sold as.
The Blues and Crusaders start as favourites, and while the prospect of the Brumbies causing an upset at Eden Park is low-to-moderate,the chance of a Chiefs' victory in Christchurch is considerably higher.
The Brumbies have something going for them, an unlovable but effective brand of rugby that is low-risk and hard to break down.
But the Blues have too many ways to escape the pressure and if their pack can't bully their way to a win on Saturday night, the magic of Beauden Barrett, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Rieko Ioane will get the job done.
It's in Christchurch where the shock may happen, despite history weighing heavily against the Chiefs.
They are confronting the quite incredible statistic of the Crusaders having never lost a play-off game in Christchurch.
The facts are these: the Crusaders have played 26 knockout games at home and won the lot. Over 27 seasons, that's beyond belief and if there is one ground – or one city at least – that can be considered a fortress, it is Christchurch and Orangetheory Stadium.
In the depths of winter, Orangetheory Stadium sits as one of the least hospitable rugby venues on earth.
It's proven an impossible task for any visitors to date to stand up to what is now a standard Crusaders' playoff formula of tightening their set-piece and scrummaging and mauling opponents to a slow death.
Crusaders players huddle. Photo / Photosport
The Crusaders, no matter who their coach has been, have always understood the nature of knockout rugby and have somehow managed to consistently produce another level entirely in the last weeks of business.
And it's always their pack that leads the way. Come the knockout games, something happens - the big men come alive, lift their intensity and their accuracy and crush whatever gets in their way.
The Reds found that out last week, when their scrum was destroyed in the first half and with it, much of their ability to stay in the game.
But as impressive as the Crusaders' record is and despite the patches of aggressive control against the Reds last week, there is a hint of a fault-line running through the defending champions.
The accuracy and certainty that has defined them under coach Scott Robertson has been occasional rather than relentless and while the Crusaders have been as good as they ever have when all the machinery is whirring, more often than not this year, it has been a battle for them to click into gear.
The Chiefs have already shown they know how to prise open and exploit the Crusaders' inconsistency.
The circumstances in which the Chiefs won 24-21 in Christchurch in round four were significantly different as there was no crowd allowed due to Covid, the ball was dry and the track firm.
But what mattered in that game is that the Chiefs were able to match the Crusaders' physicality and set-piece power.
And if there is a reason to believe in the Chiefs, it is their pack.
Aidan Ross of the Chiefs. Photo / Photosport
Aidan Ross has been arguably the best scrummaging loosehead in the country for the last six weeks and Samisoni Taukei'aho, has been the most consistent and influential hooker all year.
The second-row pairing of Brodie Retallick and Tupou Vaa'i has the size and mentality to get stuck into Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock and Luke Jacobson, wherever he may sit on the national pecking order, has made sure defensive impact has been felt these past weeks.
If Sam Cane can return to the No 7 jersey and give the Chiefs yet more tackling power and presence at the breakdown, the Chiefs may be about to make history and become the first side to win a Super Rugby playoff match.
And it's not all down to their pack. They have in Bryn Gatland an underrated playmaker, who has shown this year if he's given a steady stream of possession, he'll use it wisely and effectively.
Gatland isn't quite in the same class as Aaron Cruden, the only No 10 who has steered the Chiefs to Super Rugby glory, but he's had the best season of his career in 2022 and has developed the poise, vision and confidence to give his side the tactical control and direction they need.
He's kicked well under pressure, been clear-headed when opportunity has presented itself and so too has he shown a mental resilience to shrug off errors and keep his head in the game.
The Chiefs are not being widely talked up as a possible winner, but they should be – because of all the previous 26 teams to have headed to Christchurch hoping to win a playoff match, they look the best-placed to record that elusive away victory.
