All heart to keep slim hopes alive

BLUES v BRUMBIES
Eden Park, 5.30pm today

A cursory look at the results would point to the Brumbies as irresistible winners when their Super 14 campaign rocks up to Eden Park.

Undefeated so far, up against a Blues team who have managed a solitary scratchy victory against the battling Reds - all the signals imply the visitors will redress their 17-0 defeat at the same venue last season.

But that sort of presumptuous theory ignores a mass of other factors which trouble bookmakers, tipsters, spectators, coaches and players trying to get a handle on the series.

Only the Crusaders, the Cats and the Force have had the sort of consistent form which helps predictions.

And while the Brumbies are undefeated, which includes a draw against the Stormers, they have been erratic.

Take their last two games. They raced out to a 25-0 halftime lead against the Cats and won only 28-7 while they were behind 21-6 against the Sharks before forging a 35-30 victory off three tries scored with an opponent in the sinbin.

Before that the Sharks forwards gave their opponents a hurry up while the Brumbies backline did not function smoothly against a rushing defence.

There should be a lesson there for the Blues if they are to repeat last year's win and begin the long climb out of the trough.

Coach David Nucifora has lamented, in public, the lack of setpiece bite from his pack so his words are likely to have carried even more sting in private as he works to cure his misfiring forwards.

But tonight is all about a result for the Blues.

They have been patchy all season; lineouts useful in several games, under strain in others and a scrum which has struggled for stability.

Without a strong base, the 8, 9, 10 axis has struggled while the attacking flair of the back three has been unemployed.

Defeats have eaten into the Blues' conviction, they seem to be caught between the need to apply better structure to their game and instincts to give the ball some air.

But they have little time left to manoeuvre, little opportunity for error, no room for disbelief.

If they lose tonight, their chances of making the playoffs will be remote. Their fate will rest on the fortunes of others sides - especially as they have still to set off on their South African foray.

With that backdrop and Nucifora's disaffected links with the Brumbies still simmering, the Blues have to be in desperate mode tonight.

It is just that emotion which may get them home, but only if they carry that spirit throughout the game.

Otherwise stars such as George Gregan, Stephen Larkham, Stirling Mortlock, Mark Gerrard, George Smith and Co will use their experience to soak up a Blues inquisition before they strike.

If the Blues can control the rhythm of the game to attack the Brumbies through the centre of the park then they can create the sort of pressure the Sharks applied with such telling effect last week in Canberra.

Hooker Keven Mealamu will inevitably lead the rumble but he needs concentrated backup with resolute aggression rather than individual sorties.

The Blues chose to limit their attack against the Crusaders and were dismembered up front. A better balance has to be discovered today and first five-eighths Tasesa Lavea needs to find some zip and direction.

He was a controversial pick ahead of Carlos Spencer against the same foes last season. Lavea showed out against Larkham who lasted only 25 minutes in his comeback match after surgery for a melanoma.

This season Lavea has been quiet while Larkham has been back to his best. If he can be contained the Blues will have made serious inroads.

It will take some doing. And there will be concerns about a Blues defence which has leaked too much this season, one which will be tested on the outside by fliers like Gerrard and Clyde Rathbone or with offloads from Gregan to an inside runner.

Most of the headaches are with the Blues, a team with some pedigree but showing bitser qualities this season. Victory though would be a magic potion, something to revive the franchise's bloodlines.


Blues:
Isa Nacewa, V. Waqaseduadua, Anthony Tuitavake, Rua Tipoki, Joe Rokocoko, Tasesa Lavea, John Senio, Nick Williams, Daniel Braid, Troy Flavell, Ali Williams, Greg Rawlinson, John Afoa, Keven Mealamu (c), Tony Woodcock.

Reserves:
Tim Dow, Saimone Taumoepeau, Kurtis Haiu, Angus Macdonald, Steve Devine, Ben Atiga, Brent Ward.

Brumbies:
A. Ashley-Cooper, Clyde Rathbone, S. Mortlock (c), Gene Fairbanks, Mark Gerrard, Stephen Larkham, George Gregan, Jone Tawake, George Smith, Daniel Heenan, Mark Chisholm, Alister Campbell, Nic Henderson, J. McCormack, Bill Young.

Reserves:
Saia Faingaa, Guy Shepherdson, Adam Wallace-Harrison, Julian Salvi, Patrick Phibbs, Ben Batger, Joel Wilson.