First the easy part:
The Waratahs and Crusaders will have home semifinals no matter what happens in this weekend's final round robin.
The Waratahs have had a home playoff game once before, when they copped a 51-10 towelling from the Brumbies in 2002.
But it's familiar territory for the Christchurch
franchise, four-times winners and favourites to make it No 5 on May 28.
The Hurricanes are sure of a semifinal place. They travel to Christchurch for their final round robin game on Friday - and that looks like where they'll be heading a week later for the semifinals.
Then come the ifs ...
* If the fourth-placed Bulls beat the Stormers in Pretoria next Sunday morning they cannot be beaten out of a semifinal spot.
* If the Crusaders give the Hurricanes a severe lashing in Christchurch on Friday night, then the Bulls belt the Stormers, the Bulls could sneak into third. The Hurricanes are plus 55, the Bulls plus 11.
* If the fifth-placed Highlanders beat the Chiefs in Hamilton, with or without a bonus point, they will make the semifinals provided the Bulls lose to the Stormers.
* If the Bulls draw with a bonus point it would open the door to the Highlanders - provided they had got maximum points off the Chiefs a few hours earlier.
* If the Blues get maximum points against the Waratahs in Sydney on Friday night, they will only make the semifinals if both the Highlanders and the Bulls lose the following night.
* If your head is not hurting yet and you believe in mini-miracles, the Brumbies could sneak into the playoffs from seventh if they beat the Reds by a mile on Saturday night, then have the Bulls, Highlanders and Blues all lose by large margins.
The Super 12 rules for differentiating when teams finish level on points:
1: Superior points differential.
2: The result of the game when those teams met in the round robin.
3: The number of tries each team has scored in the round robin.
