Who are the players the World Cup coaches cannot afford to lose? With a year to go before the All Blacks and Tonga kick off the first World Cup match at Eden Park since the 1987 final, Dylan Cleaver assesses 11 players shaping as the most influential for 2011.
1 - Fourie du Preez (South Africa)
Caps: 55
Just look at what happened to the Boks in his absence.
Du Preez is the top weight, the class horse among an ordinary field of halfbacks, but he's not much good to anybody when he's injured.
South Africa seem to
have unearthed a decent replacement in Francois Hougaard but, while he is snappy and bustling, he cannot grab a game by the scruff of the neck like du Preez.
Perhaps the best illustration of the value of du Preez is to look one spot further out to Morne Steyn. When du Preez is directing traffic at the base of the ruck, Steyn looks like he has all the time in the world to kick, pass and occasionally run.
2 - David Pocock (Australia)
Caps: 22
You could argue that Quade Cooper is more pivotal - certainly, the Parramatta Eels seem to think so - or that Will Genia or the fast-fading Matt Giteau have the keys to unlock defences, but it is openside flanker David Pocock who has emerged as the beating heart of this side.
For years, the Wallabies have struggled to compete with the All Blacks for the simple reason they do not have the necessary physicality in the pack. While everyone pointed to its most obvious manifestation, the scrum, it could be argued the soft underbelly was never more costly than at the breakdown.
Pocock is doing his damnedest to single-handedly turn that around.
3 - Johnnie Beattie (Scotland)
Caps: 14
There was a brief moment in time when Scotland were quite good at rugby. The year was 1990 when they won the Grand Slam and it was three old-stagers who were the fulcrum - Derek White, Finlay Calder and John Jeffrey, a back-row trio with plenty of presence.
Many in Scotland believe they have the second coming in Glasgow back-rowers Kelly Brown (who has just joined Saracens), John Barclay and Johnnie Beattie.
It is Beattie who is the most damaging of the three. The son of another Scotland No 8, John, not-so-little Johnnie is not so much a chip off the old block, but a whopping great chunk.
4 - James Hook (Wales)
Caps: 43
The 25-year-old hails from Wales rugby heartland in Neath. He has long been considered talented enough to follow in the first-five tradition of Barry John and Phil Bennett.
The problem is that Hook has become something of a backline nomad. His best is undoubtedly No 10, where he can exert the most influence, but he is talented enough to play in several positions. This has seen him shunted to the margins to accommodate Stephen Jones, a fine player himself who can really only play at first five-eighth.
Jones is going to be 33 by the World Cup. You sense the time has come for Warren Gatland to hand the No 10 jersey to Hook.
5 - Sergio Parisse (Italy)
Caps: 65
The Argentine-born Parisse might well be the best No 8 in the world, although it is sometimes difficult to assess his value in an Italian team that traditionally struggles.
After missing the 2010 Six Nations following a serious knee injury, the world must wait to see if he returns to the sort of form that had him nominated for IRB player of the year in 2008.
Parisse is a highly skilled No 8, Italy's best lineout forward and also their best ball-handler.
If there's one thing holding him back it is his fascination with some of the game's darker arts - far harder to get away with now. With few world-class players they need Parisse on the pitch for 80 minutes every game.
6 - Rodrigo Roncero (Argentina)
Caps: 37
The 33-year-old Roncero comes pretty much as part of a package deal with his 34-year-old propping mate Martin Scelzo and 37-year-old hooker Mario Ledesma.
Without a domestic competition of any note, Argentina shamed the rugby superpowers by making the semifinals of the 2007 World Cup.
With world-class operators Juan Martin Lobbe, Felipe Contepomi and Juan Martin Hernandez in their midst, Argentina are always dangerous. The abilities of their grizzled front row are best described as destructive and Roncero, with the No 1 on his back, can make any tighthead prop's day a misery with tactics that range from brute strength to downright dirty.
7 - Thierry Dusautoir (France)
Caps: 35
The workaholic flanker - he normally plays with No 6 on his back but operates as an openside - is well known to New Zealanders.
He made 36 tackles in a certain World Cup quarter-final, which, according to some stats panels, was more than the entire All Black team. He also scored a try in that same match and led Les Bleus to their upset victory at Carisbrook last year.
So the man born in Cote d'Ivoire is a pain in the posteriors of Mssrs Henry, Smith and Hansen and a hero in the rugby heartlands of France. Big and strong in the mould of Serge Betsen, Dusautoir gets his head into places others would not normally, though they will follow him.
8 - Brian O'Driscoll (Ireland)
Caps: 109 (6 for Lions) A man familiar with European rugby believed that this year provided the first evidence of a decline in the super-high standards set by O'Driscoll. For someone who seems to have been kicking around as long as U2, O'Driscoll is still just 31 and you'd think he has the nous to get himself up for a tournament as big as the World Cup. He needs to.
The Irish are just as culpable as the All Blacks for peaking between World Cups. The embarrassment of 2007, when they failed to advance past pool play, was just the latest disappointment. Ireland have never made a World Cup semifinal. They'll need a few O'Driscoll specials to reverse that trend.
9 - Tom Croft (England)
Caps: 21 (3 for Lions)
If you think the 24-year-old moves like a dancer that's because he is, or was. Between the ages of 12-16, Croft trained in dancing, something he believes has benefited his aerial skills and agility.
Croft has the ability to break into the game's elite. The athletic loose forward is capable of playing at openside, but is best suited to being a ball-winning blindside. Playing for Leicester, Aaron Mauger described him as the quickest back-rower he had ever seen.
Croft missed the 2010 Six nations after damaging his medial ligament. It is the sort of injury that can take away a yard of pace or two, so it remains to be seen whether Croft becomes the dominant force here in 2011 many expect him to be.
10 & 11 - Richie McCaw and Daniel Carter (NZ)
Caps: 88 & 74
No startling revelations here. The All Blacks might have reinforced their reputation as the most dangerous team on the planet over the past season, but without either of these two players the fear factor is greatly diminished.
It's a rare occasion when McCaw is not accused of cheating in the week leading up to a test. Where once it was outrageous, then briefly amusing, now it is flatulent, but at least it is a sign of how preoccupied the opposition is with the flanker.
Carter might not hit the high notes as regularly as he did at his peak in 2005, but he's still a brilliant game manipulator and the class five-eighth in world rugby. News following the last gasp 29-22 victory in Soweto that he required ankle surgery would have added furrows to Graham Henry's brow.
Adding to the sphere of influence that surrounds the Cantabrians, these are the two positions that New Zealand cannot claim great depth in, due in part to the fact these two have had first dibs on the 7 and 10 jerseys for such a long time.
