Whose hand on the cup?

By WYNNE GRAY

There is one menacing statistic Australia will embrace for tonight's World Cup final.

Since rugby went professional in 1996, the Wallabies have led at halftime on 50 occasions and won 49 of those matches.

They claimed the fast start against the All Blacks in Sydney last weekend and then blotted them out in the semifinal.

But tonight at Telstra Stadium the Wallabies have to see off the grinding, pulverising pressure of an England pack and the omnipotent boot of Jonny Wilkinson.

"It's a marketing man's dream," says IRB chairman Syd Millar. "The Poms versus the Aussies."

Sentiment wants a Wallabies victory, a result for the Southern Hemisphere to savour and to continue the commercial progress of the sport in this part of the world.

Pragmatic assessment suggests otherwise. After some stutters, England brought their dogged, clinical game to the semifinals and wrenched the life out of France in dreadful conditions.

Their huge scrum outpointed their rivals and it will aim up against a Wallabies side shorn of their best tighthead scrummager in Ben Darwin.

Lineouts could be more interesting, with Justin Harrison primed to upset England skipper Martin Johnson as he did in the Lions series two years ago.

England know how to win, at Twickenham or away from home.

They have dealt to the Wallabies in their last four meetings and they appear calm and composed, although they have the enormous weight of a nation imploring a world crown to end 37 years of global torment.

They will adapt to what is in front of them tonight. They will have vast support in the huge stadium. Sydney's weather looks dodgy -

showers are predicted - but England fought through far worse last week.

Their fight tonight will be on many fronts, not least the breakdown, where the battle for first hands on the ball will be crucial.

In this most confusing part of the sport, the decisions of referee Andre Watson will have the biggest impact.

If the Wallabies are decreed to have offended in their own half, Wilkinson will punish them.

Likewise, England's tactics of slowing the ball and placing bodies around it will come under the heaviest scrutiny. Watson's verdict on cynical or clinical will have a heavy impact in this test of two staunch defences.

The recipe for the Wallabies, conditions permitting, must be more of the same they used against the All Blacks, more of the attacking formula Samoa and Wales used to frighten England.

With so much at stake, both sides will also want to begin out of their danger zone and build pressure on the other.

That will provoke more tactical kicking, with Wilkinson and Josh Lewsey better exponents than Stephen Larkham or Mat Rogers.

Against that, if the Wallabies can repeat the verve, passion and accuracy they delivered against the All Blacks, they will give England a massive shake.

And it will be all about stretching them for space and taking them away from the security of patterns they have stacked up in recent seasons.

If England win, it will end a nation's sporting drought, dating back to the 1966 World Cup soccer title.

It will also bring Sydney to a standstill, with tens of thousands of England supporters ready to party until they return home.

A Wallabies victory would give them a remarkable triple crown and pressure the IRB to hand over the Webb Ellis Cup forever, in keeping with a promise made by the late chairman Vernon Pugh.

Second place would be a huge result also from a side panned heavily during this tournament.

It would, however, leave the ARU's headquarters in Miller St empty of any significant silverware - the Tri-Nations, Bledisloe, Cook, Mandela and Webb Ellis Cups all on the export carousel.

Coverage of tonight's World Cup final match begins at 10pm at nzherald.co.nz/worldcup