The untested but superbly talented Sonny Bill Williams is rumoured to be a Cup special project but it's hard to see where there may be space for him, says Wynne Gray.
Once they were referred to as the bolters but that selection element, certainly for World Cups, has shrunk in the world of professional rugby and increased test matches.
Remember that first tournament way back in 1987 when raw Auckland loose forwards Michael Jones and Zinzan Brooke made the cut.
Jones
played test rugby for Manu Samoa 11 months before but that appearance did not prevent him being chosen for zone and national trials, then the All Blacks.
His rise seemed inevitable although there were many who questioned his ruggedness, wondered whether he was promoted because of Auckland's superiority or if he was an appropriate choice anyway, because of his never-on-Sunday stance.
Brian Lochore, Alex Wyllie and John Hart were in no doubt. They knew the Iceman was a rare talent, an explosively lithe athlete with great skills and vision. They must have chortled when Jones scored the first try by any player in the opening game against Italy at Eden Park, and went on to be one of the standouts of the tournament.
Four years later a couple of halfbacks, Jon Preston and Jason Hewett, were surprises while it was the turn of the wings for the 1995 tournament in South Africa.
Jonah Lomu was a perhaps/maybe pick for some time before he convinced coach Laurie Mains he should be taken to the 1995 tournament while another wing, transplanted loosie Eric Rush, also fitted the surprise category.
Halfback Rhys Duggan scuttled in and out of view at the 1999 event while Corey Flynn and Andy Ellis were similar eyebrow-raisers in the next two World Cups.
So who will be the bolters, if any, next year? At this stage it is hard to believe there will be one as coach Graham Henry surveys the playing resources for an end of year tour to Europe where he says the tough part will be leaving players behind.
However there is another Super 15 campaign to run, time for some to feel the pinch and others to hoist their "pick me" billboards. Keep an eye out for this trio, all outside backs in one of the most congested areas of selection talent.
Robbie Fruean: The IRB young player of the year in 2007, who subsequently had open-heart surgery but is coming back to his best.
Julian Savea: Is just 20, another IRB player of the year who is finding his way with Wellington in the national championship.
SBW: Potential to burn, a special talent, a serious project but is there enough time?
If everyone is fit next year, culling the contenders to 30 for the World Cup may rank with the most awkward jobs Henry, Wayne Smith and Steve Hansen perform in their eight-year tenure.
Last time they went into World Cup conference for the 2007 selection they emerged with 16 forwards and 14 backs including three halfbacks and three hookers for the tournament hosted by France.
With the tournament in New Zealand next year, they might tinker with that concept although they will need to have a mix of utility and specialist cover from the bench. This far out there are not many areas where the All Blacks are thin in choices.
Halfback, tighthead prop and lock may need a boost while there must be some doubts about the most effective deputies for Messrs McCaw and Carter.
Aaron Cruden has been identified as Carter's immediate backup, a young man of immense promise who still needs to confirm his readiness for test rugby. He will get more chances on the five-test, end-of-year tour to Europe where a backup for McCaw should also travel.
Right now the All Blacks are likely to pick a World Cup group which will differ by half from the one they took to Europe in 2007. It is a familiar pattern. From the 2003 group of All Blacks chosen by John Mitchell and Robbie Deans, there were 15 changes for the 2007 tournament.
Now Leon MacDonald, Doug Howlett, Aaron Mauger, Nick Evans, Byron Kelleher, Jerry Collins, Reuben Thorne, Chris Masoe, Sione Lauaki, Keith Robinson, Greg Somerville, Carl Hayman and Anton Oliver have all retired or are ineligible because they are playing offshore.
Add in Rodney So'oialo, Chris Jack and Ali Williams who are injured, battling or out of favour and the numbers mirror the dropouts from 2003.
Planning and preparation for next year is building a year out from the start of the seventh global event.
The All Blacks play Tonga, in the first of 48 round-robin games in 13 venues, in a Friday start to the tournament at Eden Park which will be unlike anything from the initial World Cup.
The stadium will be packed to its 60,000 capacity unlike the crowd of 20,000 who sauntered down to the same ground 23 years ago to watch the first game between the All Blacks and Italy.
"While the number of venues in New Zealand will be more than ['03 and'07], it reflects the organising committee's desire to take the tournament to the entire nation under its call to arms of a stadium-of-four-million philosophy," RWCL managing director Mike Miller says.
Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch have five pool games each, North Shore, Hamilton, New Plymouth, Rotorua and Dunedin will each host three, while Whangarei, Nelson, Palmerston North, Napier and Invercargill will host two games.
The winner of the Webb Ellis Cup has to survive seven tests in six weeks before the title is decided on Sunday, October 23 at Eden Park.
Should the All Blacks make it that far, they have 17 tests left before they attempt to emulate the feats of their 1987 predecessors.
A year out, at least they are heading in the right direction.
They are vastly experienced with skipper McCaw and fullback Mils Muliaina each with 88 international caps in their kitbags.
Wing Joe Rokocoko, midfielder Ma'a Nonu, Carter, loosehead prop Tony Woodcock and hooker Keven Mealamu have all gone past the 50-test mark. And the selectors have been blending in some fresher talent - Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock, the Franks brothers, Cory Jane, Israel Dagg, Rene Ranger and Benson Stanley.
There will be public utterances this year and next about the lack of time the All Black coaches have with their test squad.
That is true to some extent but those coaches will be hovering round the Super 15 franchises throughout next season, monitoring form, fitness and swapping ideas before they get into Tri-Nations mode next July. It is a short programme - four tests in a month - but one which should have them in the zone to run right into RWC 2011.
