The 2007 World Cut

Aware of the dearth of talent in the UK, the All Black selectors haven't made too much of a fuss about the very different problem they face.

The progress made by so many players on the Grand Slam tour means the selectors will have a hell of a time whittling their squad down to 30 ahead of the 2007 World Cup. What a tricky business that will be, especially when they will include three halfbacks and three hookers, as Henry has already intimated.

The lie of the land will be vastly different by August 2007 but even picking a 30-man squad based on current resources illustrates the severity of the task.

Working on the assumption the selectors will opt for a 16-14 split of forwards and backs, then Carl Hayman, Tony Woodcock and the injured Greg Somerville would be joined by one of Afoa or Tialata. At this stage, it is hard to see Canterbury's Campbell Johnstone forcing his way into the picture.

The three hookers - Anton Oliver, Keven Mealamu and Andrew Hore - pick themselves, although by 2007 Corey Flynn and Derren Witcombe will be pushing hard.

Chris Jack, Ali Williams and James Ryan travel as locks with Richie McCaw, Jerry Collins, Rodney So'oialo and Masoe four of the loose forwards.

That leaves just two places to accommodate Sione Lauaki, Mose Tuiali'i, Angus MacDonald, Jason Eaton and, by 2007, Troy Flavell and Greg Rawlinson. The question for the selectors is whether they feel they need four locks or whether they want to take a versatile loose forward who can fill in if required.

Henry also confirmed last week that he will be reluctant to see players have to turn out three weeks consecutively at the World Cup. It would be possible to fulfil that criteria by rotating three specialist locks. But any injury would leave the squad light on cover and it seems sensible to take four locks, with Eaton now most likely, although a show of form by Flavell in the meantime could complicate matters.

However, the object of this exercise is to select using current resources only. That leaves Lauaki and Tuiali'i to scrap it out for the final back-row berth with the greater impact of Lauaki possibly giving him the edge.

It is no easier in the backs where Bryon Kelleher, Piri Weepu and Jimmy Cowan are front-runners for the halfback spots. Daniel Carter and Luke McAlister are No 10s who can both play at 12, while Aaron Mauger, and Conrad Smith cover midfield although another option will be needed if Tana Umaga confirms the expected and retires.

Mils Muliaina could then cover centre with Leon MacDonald at fullback. , The four wings - Doug Howlett, Rico Gear, Joe Rokocoko and Sitiveni Sivivatu - could all be selected but that would leave no room for the attacking threats of Ma'a Nonu or Isaia Toe'ava. It would be an incredibly tough call but maybe one of the wings has to be discarded to increase the range of attacking options.

Henry has stressed all tour that they hold Toe'ava in high regard and believe he is a player who could make a significant impact at the next World Cup. "He has huge utility potential going into the future," said Henry of Toe'ava. "When you can only take 30 players to the World Cup he is ideal. We are very excited by his potential."

While Nonu is not yet the complete player, he remains one of the best line-breakers in the world. The prospect of bringing him off the bench in a tight knockout game is appealing. He has that rare ability to make things happen.

Knowing which of the wings to leave out is a lottery. Gear was deemed the unluckiest man on tour to miss the England game after his superb hat-trick in Cardiff. But how do you say no to Rokocoko, Sivivatu or Howlett? Whittling down to 30 will be a problem all right - but one that will be the envy of the rest of the world.


Possible World Cup squad:
Isaia Toe'ava, Leon MacDonald, Rico Gear, Joe Rokocoko, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Conrad Smith, Mils Muliaina, Ma'a Nonu, Aaron Mauger, Daniel Carter, Luke McAlister, Byron Kelleher, Piri Weepu, Jimmy Cowan, Carl Hayman, Greg Somerville, Tony Woodcock, John Afoa, Anton Oliver, Keven Mealamu, Andrew Hore, Ali Williams, Chris Jack, James Ryan, Jason Eaton, Jerry Collins, Sione Lauaki, Richie McCaw, Chris Masoe, Rodney So'oialo.