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Home / Sport / Rugby / Rugby World Cup

Rugby World Cup: Where the cards fall in playoff scramble

Dylan Cleaver
By Dylan Cleaver
Sports Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
30 Sep, 2011 04:30 PM6 mins to read

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England coach Martin Johnson might have one eye on the quarter-finals but he knows Scotland will be doing their best to spoil his plans tonight at Eden Park. Photo / Getty Images

England coach Martin Johnson might have one eye on the quarter-finals but he knows Scotland will be doing their best to spoil his plans tonight at Eden Park. Photo / Getty Images

The rugby world will be distilled into two rugby towns this weekend.

In Auckland and Dunedin, north and south, the final pieces of the quarter-final puzzle will fall into place.

Tonight Auckland bar owners have the mouth-watering, cash-register-ringing prospect of an England versus Scotland clash.

Pre-match aperitifs will be accompanied by arithmetic as fans work out exactly what their sides need to do to progress.

Essentially, Pool B will be decided on the turf of Eden Park, about as far from Twickenham and Murrayfield as it is humanly possible to play.

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No two international teams have played each other as often as the Calcutta Cup rivals, but this is still a rarity. The great rivals have met only once before at a World Cup, the 1991 semifinal won 9-6 by England.

The match will be remembered for the fact that the great Gavin Hastings missed a kick from in front of the posts with the score locked at 6-6.

In yesterday's Herald Brian Moore, England hooker at the time, noted that he feels Hastings' miss has been over-played and that he never felt they were in danger of losing that match. Wise after the fact, maybe, but his thoughts have been mirrored over time by Scotland's David Sole, who felt his side were never really in the match.

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That was an altogether more simple calculation: the winner took all. Now the bonus point has entered the World Cup lexicon and it means Scotland not only have to beat England, but beat them by eight points or more. Even then there are some freakish circumstances that could deny them, but it defies credibility that England could score four tries and not, at the very least, finish within seven points of the Scots.

Scotland will have two small advantages over the English and they need to take whatever they can get.

They have experience of playing outdoors at this World Cup and they, like Ireland a fortnight ago when they played Australia, will have the majority of the "neutrals" on their side.

"And the support for us from people here has been tremendous. I do not have any problem as an Englishman saying our support will be better than England's," said Scotland's defence coach Graham Steadman.

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Even the knitted brow of England coach Martin Johnson failed to deflect from tonight's occasion.

"They're all our traditional foes. We're English," Johnson said, failing miserably to downplay the significance of facing Scotland in such an important match. More accurate would be this quote from the former King Country lock: "It's going to be tense, it's going to be nervy, there's going to be anxiety, it's going to be enjoyable. If I want a quiet life I can sit at home and watch it on TV."

The neon lights might not be shining so bright when Ireland meet Italy in Dunedin, but the match is every bit as important. Ireland, buoyant after beating Australia, could come crashing down to earth if they lose to their Six Nations rivals under the roof of Stadium Otago.

It is unlikely - Italy have beaten Ireland three times in 19 matches, all of those wins coming in the pre-Six Nations days of 1995-97.

They have run them close, however, in Dublin in 2008 (16-11) and Belfast a year earlier (23-20), so Declan Kidney and his cohorts would be wise to assume they have 80 full-blooded minutes on their hands before they can start booking into their Wellington accommodation for next week. Perhaps sensing it could be a tight affair, Kidney has preferred Ronan O'Gara, their best kicker, over the livelier Jonathan Sexton at first five-eighths.

Italy, who have had to prepare for the game on two days' less rest, have brought in fullback Andrea Masi. He was a late withdrawal from Tuesday's 27-10 win over the United States after injuring his calf. Ireland must be favoured, but after their fans treated victory over the Wallabies like a grand final, you wonder whether that feeling hasn't seeped into the minds of the players.

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Possibles and probables

Pool A

Canada beat the All Blacks on Sunday night, with a bonus point; Tonga clip France's wings and hey presto, it's the All Blacks and Canada into the last eight. Now, being serious ...

* The All Blacks will top the group; France will take second with a win by any margin over Tonga tonight.

* Tonga could yet make it, if they beat France, with a bonus point and Canada fail to beat the All Blacks. France are in turmoil, but out of adversity they have been known to thrive.

Pool B

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The biggie. Three into two won't go, and right now, England and Argentina are on the front row of the grid.

* England beat Scotland tonight and they top the group; lose, but by seven or less points, and they'll still be No 1.

* A Scots win only gets them into the last eight if Argentina lose to Georgia in Palmerston North tomorrow afternoon and England miss a bonus point.

* All three teams could finish on 14 points, in which case the top will be those with the best points differential over their four pool games. At this moment, that's bad news for Scotland.

* An Argentine win with a bonus point will do the trick and they could even sneak top spot if England lose by eight or more to Scotland.

Pool C

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Another with some ginger in it.

* If Ireland beat Italy in Dunedin tomorrow by any margin, they top the group.

* A loss, even a narrow one, leaves them vulnerable to being run down with the finishing post in sight.

* Should Australia clout Russia, they could go top, if the Irish get nothing from Italy.

* If Italy win narrowly, it would be an Australia 1, Italy 2 finish.

* A narrow Irish loss - with four tries thrown in - could save them.

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* But, again, there's the prospect of all three finishing on 15 points.

* As things stand now, that's not good reading through Italian eyes.

Pool D

The outcome for this is likely to have been decided last night.

* A South African win over Samoa will have ended the islanders' campaign.

* A bonus-point loss for Samoa will have turned the spotlight on Wales, who play out-of-sorts Fiji in Hamilton tomorrow night.

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* Wales will finish second if Samoa are beaten - unless Fiji thump the Welsh, and score four or more tries.

* A three-way tie is again possible, albeit unlikely. Right now, Fiji are way adrift on points differential; Wales are best placed of the three.

Quarter-final breakdown

* Winner pool A v runnerup pool B

* Winner pool B v runnerup pool A

* Winner pool C v runnerup pool D

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* Winner pool D v runnerup pool C

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