Rugby World Cup: Pressure to pack them to the rafters

Photo / Richard Robinson

World Cup organisers are preparing for the last big push, confident they have enough clever initiatives and momentum to reach their commercial targets.

At the last count they had sold about 900,000 of the available 1.45 million tickets. Then the earthquake struck, and 150,000 tickets have been returned along with $28 million of revenue. Adding to the woe were stories of sluggish sales in Australia - a key market given its proximity.

Suddenly the equation looked very different. Up until then, the tournament had sailed along without a hitch. Now, with four months left before the opening game, it seems that shifting the last 500,000 tickets is going to be an enormous effort.

Sales targets that looked largely achievable six months ago now look ambitious. But chief executive of RNZ2011, Martin Snedden, remains faithful to his belief that interest in the tournament will increase significantly in the final run-in.

He has spent the past 10 days in Europe and the vibe is positive - there are still potentially big numbers of tourists, despite it being late in the piece, who are mulling over a World Cup visit.

More critically, the New Zealand market has barely woken yet and that is where organisers feel they can get the biggest mileage.

Tickets go back on sale from July 1 and will be available right through to kick-off. A major promotion is planned from June to celebrate 100 days to go and towns and schools across the country will soon receive their World Cup 'packs' which will see streets adorned with bunting and rugby paraphernalia.

Community initiatives, such as Auckland's adopt-a-second-team and Whangarei's paint-it-red campaign will also kick off, all of which Snedden believes will heighten interest and produce a surge in ticket sales.

"If you look at other tournaments, it has often been the case that the host country's enthusiasm gets to a certain point when people suddenly decide to commit," says Snedden. "The feel-good factor is important so we are clinging on to our original forecasts about ticket sales."

While the forecast remains unchanged, Snedden admits his gut feel, as a consequence of the Christchurch situation, will see sales fall short.

There is some confidence Eden Park will sell out the quarter-final test involving the All Blacks. The other game, likely to involve France and Argentina, England or Scotland, is more of a concern.

The England versus Argentina game, scheduled for Christchurch but now set for Dunedin, is likely to sell well but the other tests shifted away from the Garden City remain a concern.

Snedden says there's not likely to be a high retention rate - people who had tickets when the games were to be played in Christchurch - holding them for the new venue clashes.

"But there was a positive reaction from Nelson about Australia going there and interest should build in those venues given the games," he says.

If it sounds hopeful rather than probable there will be a late surge, history provides reasons to be optimistic. Snedden Points to the All Whites trying to qualify for last year's Fifa World Cup. The campaign had been largely ignored by the public until the All Whites' play-off against Bahrain. At that point interest surged, with Wellington's Westpac Stadium selling out in minutes for the critical second leg.

The question of what happens if predictions are all wrong and sales don't accelerate is one Snedden and his team continue to largely ignore. There doesn't appear to be a Plan B.

"I don't think pricing is a great mechanism for us [to encourage sales]," says Snedden. "I'm not keen for us to do that because it is unfair on those people who have paid full price.

"We are going to have to rely on people wanting to be there."

That's not as flimsy as it sounds. Ticket prices in many of the provinces are similar to the costs of attending a Super Rugby game and, inevitably, locals will feel the pressure nearer the tournament to be part of what will almost certainly be the last World Cup played in New Zealand.