Kris Shannon outlines five reasons why everything is fine ahead of the Rugby World Cup.
1. The fateful eight
Nothing has changed since World Rugby thought it wise to hold the World Cup draw in December 2020, as if there wasn’t enough going on. For the href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/topic/all-blacks/" target="_blank">All Blacks, it’s always been a quarter-final against Ireland or South Africa.
Despite the wild swings since – the encouraging early form of 2023, the historic defeats of 2022, whatever happened in 2021 – that looming task has remained the same.
One match in the middle of October will render irrelevant the previous four years, especially that blip at Twickenham the other morning.
Yes, it would’ve been nice to lock away the Qatar Airways Cup, maybe soon fighting with another famous prize for seat 1A on the flight home from France.
And yes, it would’ve been ideal for the All Blacks to avoid a record defeat while facing their greatest rivals in one last tuneup before a trip over the Channel.
But none of that matters now, not if you live in denial. They’re still in the last eight. It’s still a quarter-final against Ireland or South Africa.
“You might find out.” It was perhaps not the most reassuring answer when Ian Foster was asked whether Luke Jacobson could play lock, a position he could play against France in a couple of weeks.
But without belabouring the point already belaboured, the All Blacks can cope with Jacobson learning on the job against the hosts. The main focus for the next six weeks is easing Brodie Retallick and Shannon Frizell back into action, then ensuring Scott Barrett doesn’t do a Scott Barrett late in pool play.
Yes, it would’ve been nice had Barrett cut in half his collection of yellow cards against the Boks.
And yes, it would’ve been ideal for the selectors to avoid thinning the lock stocks to a level where we could soon discover something new about Jacobson.
But all going well, the All Blacks will have the luxury of selecting only specialised locks when the knockout rounds begin.
3. Mellow over yellow
If we’re looking to cast blame for the disciplinary woes in southwest London – and we should be – here are a couple of non-Barrett candidates.
First, colleague and commentator Elliott Smith, who published a column the day before the game pointing out the All Blacks had yet to be shown a card in 2023, after copping 11 in 2022.
Second, the concept of variance. Is discipline, in a card sense, still a skill to be mastered or is the referee’s pocket-reaching becoming increasingly random? Consider, with the frame-by-frame attention now paid to tackle height, how many yellow or even red cards are owed to malice or a deficiency in technique, and how many are shown to tacklers whose timing was a bit off?
That’s not to argue those cards are undeserved; but they probably aren’t predictive of a team being consistently punished, allowing for the odd Owen Farrell-sized exception.
The All Blacks receiving 11 cards in 2022 predicted nothing about their clean record in 2023, just as good behaviour in the year’s first four tests was forgotten once sinners were binned against the Boks.
So don’t worry about it; the costly sending-off will come when it comes.
Is Scott Barrett ill-disciplined or just unlucky? Photo / Photosport
4. With friends like these
Misery loves company, apparently, which must be why defeated sportspeople always look super stoked when the opponents who did the defeating come over to offer condolences moments after shattering their dreams.
The All Blacks, miserable from their mauling by the Springboks, can at least enjoy the company of a couple of old friends.
So keen were the Wallabies to cheer up their transtasman neighbours that they summarily slumped to their own heavy loss against France, as the second Eddie Jones era remained admirably committed to the bit.
And we can always count on our most powerful allies in an hour of need, with England taking to Twickenham the next day to make unwanted history of their own against Fiji.
That’s true friendship – and that’s two so-called contenders the All Blacks will welcome in the later rounds.
Who’s left? France? We don’t have to worry about France until the final. Ireland? The next time someone worries about Ireland at a World Cup will be the first time. South Africa? Hmm, yes, a compelling point.
5. This is fine
It would be little surprise to see the All Blacks lift the Webb Ellis Cup for a fourth time.
Foster’s side remain favourites at the TAB for a reason – that reason being that the TAB likes to make money – and Rugby World Cup winners generally come from a small pool: two nations have collected two-thirds of the trophies.
What really happened on Saturday, when we eliminate the noise and are as reductive as possible to strengthen a hand? The All Blacks lost their last warmup game. Big deal.
As Phil Gifford noted, they did that before emerging triumphant in 1987 and 2011, while in 2015 they finished third in the Tri-Nations, which sounds about as low as one can finish in the Tri-Nations.
The All Blacks will be fine. And if they’re not, if these straws slip through their despairing grasp, just swap one black shirt for another, change the channel and enjoy the rest of the Cricket World Cup.
Ah yes, the Cricket World Cup, where nothing can possibly go wrong.
Kris Shannon has been a sports journalist since 2011 and covers a variety of codes for the Herald. Reporting on Grant Elliott’s six at Eden Park in 2015 was a career highlight.
