Rugby World Cup 2023: Players the All Blacks can least afford to lose

Injury and suspension setbacks have overshadowed the series of recent World Cup warm-up fixtures. As the All Blacks prepare for their final outing against the Springboks at Twickenham before departing to France, Liam Napier assesses the leading figures they can least afford to lose this weekend and beyond.

Ethan de Groot:

In little over a year, de Groot has morphed from discarded to irreplicable All Blacks prop. Rewind to July last year and de Groot was dropped from the All Blacks to improve his mobility, fitness and work rate. He went back to Southland, put in the hard yards out of the spotlight and after returning off the bench in the loss to the Springboks in Mbombela, he seized his chance as starting loosehead in the All Blacks upset triumph at Ellis Park. In 10 starts since, de Groot has made consistent, sizeable impressions on the test scene with his strong scrummaging complementing deft ball skills for a big man. No one could replace de Groot’s all-court game in the All Blacks. Tamaiti Williams is a powerful yet raw prospect – as his maiden start against the Wallabies in Dunedin proved. Ofa Tuungafasi is experienced but he’s not on de Groot’s level. And while Joe Moody could match de Groot’s scrummaging, his ball skills are inferior and his lack of recent game time leaves him on the outer of the World Cup squad for now.

Ethan de Groot has shone for the All Blacks since his debut two years ago. Photo / photosport.nz

Aaron Smith:

Losing Smith would be a crippling body blow for the All Blacks. Smith’s running threat isn’t what it used to be but his crisp delivery, composed decision-making from the base and accurate box kicks anoint him a fulcrum of the All Blacks plans. Smith’s vast experience – as one of four centurions – gives him the poise to implement a game plan and play smart, heads up, unstructured footy. Opting to omit Brad Weber from their World Cup squad leaves the All Blacks exposed from a starting perspective. Finlay Christie is yet to seize his chance in four largely flustered starts - often behind struggling forward packs. And while Cam Roigard offers a compelling point of difference with his comparative size, running ability and left boot, prior to this weekend he’s played one test off the bench. Thrusting either into a World Cup starting role carries serious risk.

Richie Mo’unga:

It speaks volumes for Mo’unga’s coming of age that he now shapes as an invaluable cog in the All Blacks’ machine. Like de Groot, Mo’unga’s starting presence at Ellis Park marked the defining turning point in his test career. Only since then has Mo’unga looked as though he truly belongs among the world’s elite playmakers. The All Blacks forward pack’s transformation has helped Mo’unga’s progression immensely. So, too, the selectors fully committing to him as the first-choice No 10. Mo’unga now runs the All Blacks with inner belief. He appears clear and concise in the team’s plans, and this year in particular he has executed those with consistent precision. That confidence flows through to his improved defence and clutch goal-kicking.

Losing Mo’unga is likely to promote Damian McKenzie to lead the All Blacks backline. While McKenzie largely fulfilled that brief in the All Blacks opening test rout of the Pumas in Mendoza, his skittish performance against the Wallabies in Dunedin evokes nerves should he be required to start a pressure cooker World Cup test. Barrett is the other option, of course, but the All Blacks have used him exclusively at fullback this year which suggests he has slipped down the first-five pecking order.

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Richie Mo’unga and Scott Barrett are both crucial members of the All Blacks squad. Photosport

Jordie Barrett:

Seven tests is all Barrett needed to stamp his authority on the second-five role. While the All Blacks harness two other Barretts, they don’t possess another Jordie. No other second-five prospect can fulfil Jorde’s direct, transformative punch from the midfield – or his range of skill under pressure. It’s almost unfathomable that Barrett’s fulltime switch from fullback to No 12 came about only following a raft of injuries to David Havili, Quinn Tupaia and Anton Lienert-Brown last year. Before that, the All Blacks were reluctant to follow the Hurricanes lead. Eleven months ago Barrett started his first test at second-five against the Wallabies at Eden Park. The All Blacks haven’t looked back since. Barrett thrives on the involvement and contact second-five offers him. While he offers a consistent, powerful ball carrying presence his passing vision and kicking skills are often underrated. Losing Barrett would, therefore, significantly alter the shape of the All Blacks backline.

Ardie Savea:

Savea’s importance to the All Blacks is heightened by the decision to select five loose forwards in their World Cup squad. Widely regarded as one of the world’s best players, Savea underlined his influence in the All Blacks’ last test against the Wallabies by pulling off a try-, and potentially test-, saving tackle on halfback Tate McDermott. Savea’s impact is often more evident with ball in hand, when he gets his legs pumping, or at the breakdown by snaffling telling turnovers when the All Blacks are defending their line. On this occasion, holding up McDermott prevented the All Blacks falling to a possibly insurmountable deficit in Dunedin. Once a natural openside flanker, Savea has evolved into a mainstay at the back of the All Blacks scrum. With Luke Jacobson the only specialist No 8 cover in the squad, Savea’s presence cannot be replaced.

Ardie Savea against the Wallabies. Photo / photosport.nz

Scott Barrett:

Already one lock down due to Brodie Retallick’s knee injury, the All Blacks can ill-afford to lose Scott Barrett from their thin second-row stocks. Barrett’s compelling form has entrenched his status as the All Blacks leading lock this season. He’s called the lineouts, made crunching hits – the one that flattened McDermott at the Melbourne Cricket Ground a highlight – and led the way with his relentless work-rate. After 61 tests, Barrett is now the All Blacks premier lock to leave centurions Sam Whitelock and Retallick, when fit, to contest the other starting role. Prior to sitting out the final home test in Dunedin, Barrett played 80 minutes in commanding victories over the Pumas, Springboks and Wallabies to further state his unstoppable ticker.

Liam Napier has been a sports journalist since 2010, and his work has taken him to World Cups in rugby, netball and cricket, boxing world title fights and Commonwealth Games.