Every four years, the default position installs the All Blacks World Cup favourites. Not this year, though. As Ian Foster announced his first bold squad of the season, this foreign concept hovered in the Te Awamutu air.
Can the All Blacks win the World Cup? It’s a question never posed in the nine previous editions as the answer rolled off the tongue.
Yet after the turbulence of last season, when the All Blacks replaced two assistant coaches and Foster retained his role amid feverish scrutiny through to the global tournament in France, uncertainty persists.
While the rugby world will never write off the All Blacks, many in New Zealand, those scarred by recent defeats, continue to doubt their team’s chances of progression.
That’s not a bad place for Foster and the All Blacks to sit. Pressure and expectations usually consume the All Blacks at this juncture. This year, while internal demands remain as high as ever, the public are weary.
Foster, having battled a fraught landscape for much of his tenure, is well aware that perception prevails but in his final year at the helm he remains undeterred from his unwavering belief the All Blacks will rise to the pinnacle stage.
“Absolutely,” Foster said about whether the All Blacks can reclaim the Webb Ellis Cup after including six rookies in his Rugby Championship squad.
“The good thing is not too many other people think we can. That’s probably a slightly unusual space to be as an All Black team, but that doesn’t change our belief. Belief is only one thing. You’ve actually got to put it to work. We can’t wait to start.”
A ridiculously lopsided World Cup draw that groups the top four ranked nations on the same side - putting the All Blacks on a likely quarter-final collision course with Ireland or the Springboks - heightens external nerves.
“I don’t think we’ve been written off but there’s a lot of people - mainly in this country - that are worried about how this World Cup is going to go, and I think that’s a good thing,” Foster said.
“This is going to be a tough World Cup. France and Ireland, we know how strong they are. There will be others like South Africa as the current champions.
“We’ve got great confidence in the team we’re assembling. Going into the last two World Cups I’ve been involved [in], there’s a different feel about every tournament.
“We built a lot of character last year. It was tough. We all know that. I loved the way we finished the year. I loved the way the group stayed tight through pressure and adversity and focused on their performances.”
World Cup hosts France are favourites with most bookies around the world, with the All Blacks second favoured, Ireland third and South Africa rounding out the top four.
All Blacks assistant coach Joe Schmidt knows plenty about crippling World Cup pressures. His highly successful Irish tenure was blighted by two quarter-final exits - the second after Ireland entered the 2019 tournament ranked No 1.
While Ireland have regained the top-seeded mantle and will again attempt to break their World Cup quarter-final duck this year, the weight of expectation rests heavily on France at home.
“I’m not sure we’re that far off favouritism,” Schmidt said. “If people were throwing in three or four teams we’d often be in that mix. World Cups are very tight.
“At the last World Cup, we saw the All Blacks have a big win; England have a massive win but South Africa come through against Japan, only just beat Wales in a turgid game and then dominate the final through their set piece. In those three weeks, the games shifted a lot.
“I know for the Irish boys it was a bit intimidating going in as world No 1 for the first time in their history. They’re a lot more comfortable with that now, unfortunately, because they’ve spent a bit more time there and got a few more wins under their belt so they have a real belief in who they are and what they can deliver. The French are good and South Africans are always tough.
“For us, it will be about building.”
Time is precious for the All Blacks’ trajectory. This week, 17 players not involved in the Super Rugby final gather for the first three-day camp of the year in Tauranga. The All Blacks then have under two weeks to their opening Rugby Championship test against Argentina in Mendoza, before returning the following week to confront the Springboks at Mt Smart Stadium.
Four tests to integrate six new faces, cement first-choice combinations, assess absent injured incumbents and trim the World Cup squad leaves a delicate balancing act for Foster to manage.
“Since 2011 we haven’t won the Rugby Championship in a World Cup year,” Foster said. “That’s been the only years I haven’t won it. We’re craving as many big games as we can at the moment. We want to go in fully loaded for this Rugby Championship. That’s important for us to get back up to speed quickly, get our game right. The World Cup, day one, is big. And we want to be ready.
“This is clearly the basis of the World Cup group. They’ve got the first crack at it. Some of the selections we’ve had we’re mindful when you go to a World Cup you need more than 33. We’ve got the chance to work with a few extra players in the meantime and whether they make the squad or not we need them ready.
“When people have an opportunity it’s up to them to take those. There’s four clear opportunities ahead.”
Defying the odds is not a notion the All Blacks are accustomed to at World Cups. This time, that’s the challenge they face.
Former All Blacks' frustrations began before he coached his first All Blacks test.