Rugby: Tough call to find back-up for Carter

All Blacks first-five Daniel Carter. Photo / Brett Phibbs

Implicit in the conjecture about who is the right choice to back up Daniel Carter is the conviction that whoever gets the nod will actually be up to the job.

That conviction might be increasingly hard to sustain over the next 10 weeks. Each of the aspiring first five-eighths contenders faces a long journey from where they are now to where they will need to be if they are to front in a critical test.

Perhaps there is a natural optimism inspired by Sir Edmund Hillary; that New Zealanders always make it to the end, no matter how tough the route. But what if September comes and there isn't anyone other than Carter?

What if it turns out that those aspiring to be his deputy just aren't good enough to play test football?

Carter could be dinged at any time in any game and the All Blacks have to have another No 10 who can run the show. Not just against the likes of Canada and Japan, but against the big boys - South Africa, Australia, France and England.

To ponder in mid-March whether anyone will actually be able to fulfil the brief is to run the risk of being accused of alarmism but certainly the performances to date hardly inspire confidence.

No one has done more to foster doubt than Aaron Cruden - last year's golden protege who was being presented for much of the season as the one'.

He, of course, came careering off course in Sydney when he was handed his first test start.

At times his performance was painful; brave and determined, yes; skilled, accurate and anywhere near good enough, no. His left leg made a show of letting everyone know it was only there for standing on, while his right was so weak, it gave the impression the ball must have been seriously waterlogged, or even burst.

It was a big test, the pressure was on and he shouldn't be condemned for struggling to cope. But it looks like the selectors have misread Cruden; maybe not so much in their belief that he will be a quality first five - more the time frame in which that will happen.

Last Saturday against the Chiefs, his goalkicking was excellent. Everything else, though, was decidedly ordinary. He missed touch with a penalty, had a clearance partly charged that led to the decisive break ahead of Stephen Donald's try and was defensively frail, which is why the Chiefs kept running down his channel.

Most concerning for the All Black selectors was his inability to impose himself; to play the role of navigator which is what they identified last year as being his key skill.

He was a silent passenger, tucked in behind his pack and not sure how to change the course of events. It was no surprise to see him taken off after 55 minutes.

Yet, like the All Black coaches after they hauled off Cruden after 60 minutes in Sydney, Hurricanes coach Mark Hammett was only full of praise for the 22-year-old. "Aaron is a very, very good player," said Hammett.

"That was only his sixth Super Rugby game that he has started. He is going to go from strength to strength but that is going to take time in that position. He's a very exciting player and is going to be a very important player for the Hurricanes."

On the same ground where Cruden looked so indecisive and ill-equipped, and at almost the same age Carter tore apart the British Lions. No one needed an explanation as to why Carter had been selected - his 33 points and total brilliance told the story.

There is good reason to be sceptical about the merits of Cruden; to be uncertain he'll be test quality by September this year, if indeed he will make it at all.

Confidence in Donald is just as low. He was the unfair subject of national derision last year for his performance in Hong Kong. That skewed the truth - he had an awful 20 minutes but he's not an awful player. He's just not a test player. His skills aren't smooth enough, his timing isn't quite there, his tactical appreciation can be wayward and his execution can be variable. We can forget about him - the All Black selectors almost certainly have.

As they most likely have Mike Delany. He's tidy, compact and mentally assured and he was definitely worth his place on the 2009 European tour. But he doesn't scream All Black and who would gamble on that changing in the next 10 weeks?

So that leaves Colin Slade and Luke McAlister. The former is the one on whom so many have pinned their faith and it's not without justification. Slade can run, he can kick, he can pass and he can tackle. But can he play first five? The clock is ticking for him; time is now limited to prove he can bring his portfolio together and use it effectively.

Which is why McAlister, the longer the season goes on, looks more and more like the best of the aspiring bunch.

He has 30 test caps. He can kick goals and he can break from a standing start. His kicking game is there and he has the confidence to back himself.

But while McAlister might be the best equipped and the strongest candidate, how would the nation feel about him wearing No 10 in a World Cup semifinal? That propensity of his to kick short and hope; that natural instinct of his to play what he sees - to take the risk and make the pass. They are match winning qualities but they can also be the sort of acts that lose tests.

A natural second five, McAlister has never given the impression he's at ease with the decision-making involved one berth in. Most New Zealanders would presumably rather not be reminded of his frailties in that department in a crucial World Cup game. But they might not have much choice. The selectors have to give the job to someone whether they are up to it or not, as the New Zealand Rugby Union has confirmed it will not budge from its current eligibility stance.

"There may be a short-term gain in allowing players from overseas to play for the All Blacks but our view is on balance if we made the All Blacks jersey available to those overseas, a significant number of our best players

would not be playing their rugby in New Zealand," said NZRU chief executive Steve Tew.

"It's not straight-forward but we believe long-term issues outweigh any short-term gains. If we were ever to change that policy or even tweak it, it would be an incredibly big call to do it in a cycle of player contracts."

The All Blacks are heavy favourites to win the World Cup. They were in a different class last year. Across their squad, they have choice except for one key position - and that makes them the most vulnerable of all the serious challengers.