Rugby: Testing time for fringe All Blacks

Zac Guildford has a chance to stake a claim for an All Blacks World Cup berth. Photo / Getty Images

If lessons really have been learned, then the All Blacks will have a familiar and consistent look to them between now and the World Cup.

They have reached the final run-in, the place where they can't afford to be overly clever. The Tri Nations is an opportunity to win tests, hone combinations and gently experiment with a few peripheral players.

Unlike 2007, the All Blacks won't make mass changes from week to week. Coach Graham Henry has confined mass rotation to the past.

It worked, to an extent, between 2005 and 2007 when there was an incredible depth of resource. But he accepts it won't work now and that the best way to blood new talent is to fit them around a core of experience.

Consistency of selection between late 2009 and throughout 2010 has enabled the All Blacks to reach this point - certain about their best XV with the only contention being at second five, where they are blessed with the world's two most destructive attacking forces.

If they want to be sure about the likes of Zac Guildford, Colin Slade and Andy Ellis during the Tri Nations then they won't all play at once.

Changes from week to week will be restricted - maybe two or a maximum of three so as the new faces can be part of a team that has momentum; that has established combinations and flow.

It will be a difficult balance for the coaches. They want to achieve the triple goal of winning the Tri Nations, building patterns, confidence and understanding and they need to be sure they select the right 30-man World Cup squad.

The squad now is not necessarily the squad that will be named for the World Cup. There are still question marks hanging over various individuals.

It is possible for someone to play their way out of contention; still possible for someone outside the group to earn a reprieve. Ideally the selectors don't want to see a swagger of changes in their World Cup 30.

They have taken months of analysis to get to this point. They want continuity from the Tri Nations into the World Cup and probably there are only four players, possibly five who need to convince of their right to be in the final squad.

Corey Flynn was pencilled into the mix before the Super Rugby final; reward for consistent performances over the course of the campaign. But his throwing on the night would have made for some awkward viewing for the selectors.

It's an old failing of Flynn's - under pressure he's prone to melting down - and he is certain to be given game time now to see how he holds up.

The first hint of his aim going on the blink and he'll face a nervous wait to see if he makes the final cut. Hika Elliot impressed on the end of year tour in 2010 and would have been close to selection this time round. The All Blacks can't afford to carry a hooker whose ability to perform his core role is suspect.

Guildford will also be under intense scrutiny. He played out of his skin for much of the campaign but was strangely out of sorts in the final. He'll need to prove he's as good at scoring tries as he is at creating them.

Cory Jane is the sort of player the coaches want to include. They know what he delivers at his best and, if he can recover some of his form with Wellington, the temptation to include him will be huge.

Jarrad Hoeata can be confident he deserved his selection. He'll also know, though, that Anthony Boric was in top form prior to damaging his foot and has significant international experience. There is an expectation that if Boric can recover in time to feature at the World Cup, he'll come into the 30-man squad for Hoeata.

The final area of doubt is in the loose forwards where at present there is no back-up specialist openside. Adam Thomson is going to have to prove he can cover there otherwise there will almost certainly be a casualty.

He's done it in the past and is such a good footballer that he should be able to do it again. If he doesn't convince then either he or Liam Messam will be in danger of missing out to a specialist - the shortlist led by Matt Todd, Luke Braid and Daniel Braid.

Colin Slade is possibly the only other man with not enough current form or history behind him to be overly confident. He'll need to put something on the track but needn't worry too much - the selectors had many more reasons to pick Aaron Cruden and they still went for Slade on the basis that his potential form is more compelling than Cruden's actual form.

The coaches don't really want to be bogged down in selection debate over the next five weeks, however. Now is the time for them to build the game plan - to find the subtleties and points of difference that are going to keep their opponents guessing.

Henry has been clear in his view - he feels the All Blacks need to find another 15 per cent. In World Cup years the likes of England, Australia and South Africa have this ability to dig deep and find a new dimension.

The game against Fiji on Friday will be an opportunity to focus minds and run out the inevitable kinks of not being together for so long. Many of the Crusaders and the likes of Keven Mealamu and Jerome Kaino, who have clocked plenty of miles, will most likely be rested.

The South African test in Wellington now looms as an opportunity to be a little more daring in style and selection as a result of the Boks bringing a vastly watered-down squad. Winning is critical, psychologically as much as anything else in that there is value in keeping the Boks fearful of playing in New Zealand.

The biggest game of the series will be in Auckland in what could be a dress rehearsal for the World Cup final. The Wallabies won the last encounter and feel they are on to something. Their winning reaction got up a few All Black noses and Quade Cooper and Will Genia are in the form of their lives.

The opportunity is there to send the Wallabies home demoralised and bruised.