Rugby: Pool of death will kill heavyweight

The Wallabies have talked about being more physical but the All Blacks blew them away at Eden Park. Photo / Greg Bowker

Scarcely believable that England, Wales and Australia find themselves in same group — and then there’s Fiji

There's no getting away from Pool A - it will determine the shape and mood of the World Cup. Never before has the draw thrown up a pool like this and this tournament starts from the unusual place of knowing that it's going to lose a heavyweight before the knockout round. Not maybe - but definitely and that's unprecedented - Australia are ranked third in the world, England fourth and Wales sixth and one of them isn't going to make it out of the pool.

Just to show how strange the World Cup draw is, Fiji, ranked ninth in the world, are also in this pool making it unbelievably harder and more competitive than the other three groups.

How, when the All Blacks find themselves in a pool with the eighth ranked Argentina, the 10th-ranked Tonga, 13th ranked Georgia and the 20th ranked Namibia, could the draw be so lopsided?

The answer is that World Rugby insist, for no particularly obvious or compelling reason, on making the World Cup draw three years before the tournament. When this one was made, Wales were in a slump and ranked ninth in the world, while England were fifth, Australia third.

The draw separated teams ranked one to four - putting each of them in a different pool; then one team ranked five to eight was put in each pool, with the same process for teams ranked nine to 12.

It was scarcely believable that England, Wales and Australia could come out the way they did, but that's what happened and the tournament has this impossible situation that is going to affect everything.

No one can predict the make-up of the quarter-finals with any confidence because it's just too hard to be sure what's going to happen.

It's tempting to say that Wales will be the ones to miss out. They are the lowest ranked and haven't had much recent success against either Australia or England. The Welsh have been a classic "get-close" team but somehow never manage to quite drive in the final nail.

Then there's the Twickenham factor - where they will play both England and Australia. They hardly ever won there. It has been a horrible ground for them.

But the picture isn't that simple. England will no doubt feel enormous pressure as the home side and that burden of expectation could cripple them. Then there is the question of whether England are actually as good as some may think they are.

Yes they stuffed the All Blacks a few years back and they ripped France apart earlier this year in the Six Nations. But then they were fairly ordinary when they lost the third test in New Zealand last year and again in London later in the year. Consistency has evaded them and some of their frontline players appear psychologically frail and prone to going missing in big games.

As for the Wallabies - they have talked plenty about being more physical but the All Blacks, when they pulled finger and fronted properly, blew them away last week. England and Wales will fancy they can scrum the Wallabies off the park and beat them up in all the collisions.

So what that the Wallaby backline has world class players; they might never get their hands on the ball.

Where this could end up is with each team posting one win and one defeat, bringing bonus points and points differential into play.

And there is considerable motivation to top the pool. The quarter-final draw sees Pool A paired with Pool B - the group that contains South Africa, Samoa and Scotland.

Finish second in Pool A and the chances are high that team will be playing the Boks in the last eight - another monumentally tough game.

The All Blacks, should they progress to the last four, await after that.

Top Pool A and a quarter-final against Samoa or Scotland is on the cards with - probably - Ireland, France or Argentina waiting in the semifinal.

From an All Black perspective, should they reach the last four, they could be playing Wales, Australia, England or South Africa.

Most money will flow towards it being the Boks, who beat Australia in the quarter-final, with England topping Pool A and making it to the last four on the other side of the draw.

Following the money is not always sensible though, because at this point it really does look like a mug's game trying to pick a winner in Pool A.

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