All the money, apart from the odd Bank of Scotland tenner, is on Argentina making the semifinal for the first time when they meet the Scots at Stade de France early on Monday, but the Argentines will be wise to tread carefully.
The numbers fall their way. They
have won the last five clashes with the Scots. None of their players have experienced defeat against Scotland, they won all four pool games pretty impressively, have good players in fine form and confidence is high. And yet, Scotland, who have lacked any cutting edge in attack, will still present Argentina with problems, and in Chris Paterson, they have a kicker with a 100 per cent success record from his 15 shots at goal during the World Cup.
The Scots will hew away and have a couple of decent backs in fullback Rory Lamont and halfback Mike Blair, plus a group of gnarly, resilient forwards. "We know Argentina are very strong. They challenge for every ball, every metre on the pitch," Scotland captain and flanker Jason White said.
"It's all about putting in a big performance when it matters - and [on Monday] it definitely matters."
Argentina are a team in their prime. Experienced players like Gonzalo Longo, the balding No 8, captain and halfback Agustin Pichot, first five-eighths Juan Martin Hernandez, locks Patricio Albacete and Carlos Lobbe are big stage players.
Fullback Ignacio Corleto, whose try ignited Argentina on their way to the opening night upset win over France, plays for Stade Francais. He's appeared at the stadium six times but balks at calling it home. "Home for me is Buenos Aires. There'll be 80,000 spectators there and they won't all be Argentines," he quipped.
White said the Scots preferred being underdogs. He's got no chance of being anything other than that against Argentina. Equally, they'll figure if they can hang close, get into the last quarter still within range they'll have a real chance of their first semifinal appearance for 16 years.
"We have to be disciplined, try to impose our game plan and control the match," Longo, 33 and with 53 caps, said.
No disrespect to the Scots, but you hope Argentina make it. On what they'd added to the cup so far, they deserve it.
