Graham Henry.
It is still no clearer as to who the All Blacks will meet in Cardiff, should they beat a weakened Scotland team at Murrayfield tomorrow morning (NZT), as expected.
There are several permutations and either one of France, Argentina or Ireland could line up in the Welsh capital.
If Argentina takes five points off Namibia in Marseille this morning then:
* Ireland must beat Argentina and score four tries when they play the penultimate pool match in Paris next weekend. They must also prevent the Pumas from finishing within six points of them. If they achieve that, then Ireland will finish with 14 points like Argentina, but they will advance by virtue of their head-to-head result and will most likely face New Zealand.
* If France beats Georgia (September 31) and secures a bonus point, it will finish Pool D on 15 points. If Argentina finishes on 15 points. too, it would claim the pool victory by virtue of their head-to-head result, meaning France would face New Zealand in Cardiff.
* If Argentina loses to Ireland, but prevents Ireland securing a bonus point and don't achieve a bonus point themselves, then they could finish second behind France and then face New Zealand at Cardiff.
There are other permutations too, such as all teams finishing on 14 points with each having beaten one of the other two teams.
This means the team with the third-best points differential would be eliminated. At this stage, Ireland are a clear third in that department.
There is also a possibility that neither Argentina nor France will pick up their expected bonus points against Namibia and Georgia respectively, but the smaller teams usually fade the longer the tournament goes on.
The Irish yesterday were not delving too much into the possibilities, other than to acknowledge "it's a big ask".
For what it's worth, having experienced the vibrancy and passion of an 80,000 crowd at St Denis, the All Blacks might prefer meeting them in Cardiff.
