Christopher Reive looks at how the top teams are tracking ahead of the Rugby World Cup.
World ranking: 1
The Irish have had a strong run into the tournament thus far. Following a strong 2022 which included a famous series win in New Zealand by completing the Six Nations grand slam – beating all five other nations in the tournament, they remain the top-ranked team in the world and will be desperate to finally live up to that tag in France.
Talking point
The Irish have been consistently mediocre at World Cups. While they have only missed the knockout stages in one of nine appearances at the tournament, they have never progressed from the quarterfinal. Ireland will meet South Africa and Scotland, two of the top five teams in the world, during the group stages before a date with either New Zealand or France in the quarterfinals should they progress, so they’re certainly going to be tested.
World ranking: 2
Tipped by many as the team to beat in this year’s tournament on their home turf, the French began their season in solid form despite injuries being an issue during their Six Nations campaign. Les Bleus finished with a 4-1 record – good enough for second in the tournament behind unbeaten Ireland. That result will surely fill them with confidence for the year ahead, with members of the team topping all the point-scoring stats. Impressive halfback Antoine Dupont was showing signs of the form that saw him named World Rugby Player of the Year in 2021, showing his vision throughout the tournament.
Talking point
Injuries have hit the French squad frequently over the past few years. During the Six Nations, coach Fabien Galthie named eight new caps as he had some star power missing. Galthie is unlikely to select a player who is not fully fit for his World Cup squad, so those who have returned since the Six Nations will need to prove themselves if given the chance in the mid-season test window.
World ranking: 3
After a mixed bag in 2022, the All Blacks will be looking to time their run into the World Cup and with the Rugby Championship now in sight on the horizon, the competition for spots in the squad is looking tight. Outside of the usual candidates, several players putting their hands up for a chance to fill limited spots. Damian McKenzie’s undeniable play this season is sure to displace one of the incumbents in the squad, the likes of Shaun Stevenson, Emoni Narawa and Cam Roigard have emerged as potential rookie call-ups, while the midfield and halfback situations shape up as a bit of a quagmire for selectors with plenty of in-form contenders across Super Rugby Pacific.
Talking point
The All Blacks casualty ward has been slowly filling up throughout the season. George Bower and Sevu Reece have been ruled out for the season, Quinn Tupaea (knee) won’t be back until the NPC, while Joe Moody has recently suffered a lower leg injury and Crusaders coach Scott Robertson’s outlook for the veteran prop wasn’t good. That area will be worth tracking during the Rugby Championship.
World ranking: 4
The defending World Cup champions also mixed their form in 2022, finishing the year with eight wins and five losses in the test arena. They will take plenty away from slim losses to Ireland and France, as well as good wins over England and New Zealand, turning their year around after early defeats to Australia and Wales. Consistency is going to be the key for this team, but the South Africans usually bring their best when the big tournament rolls around.
Talking point
The Springboks will be hoping for a quick recovery for workhorse skipper Siya Kolisi, who recently underwent surgery to repair a serious knee injury. Kolisi is on the mend, and was included in a training camp earlier this month. While his initial timeframe for recovery had him all but ruled out of the tournament, he’ll be doing everything he can to be there. He is one of several concerns for the Springboks, with Eben Etzebeth, Jaden Hendrikse and Frans Steyn all nursing injuries, but expected to be healthy in time for the World Cup should they be selected.
World ranking: 5
Ranked as high as they have ever been, Scotland have shown they can win a big game and have the stars to impact results. They stunned many in their upset against England at Twickenham in the opening round of the Six Nations, with wing Duhan van der Merwe emerging as a star with a memorable double. Scotland will get a good test of just where they are in comparison with the elite teams when they have two tests against France later in the year, while they will also meet Italy and Georgia. They’re a team on the rise to keep an eye on this year.
Talking point
Scotland have had quite the rise over the past couple of seasons, but will they be able to produce similar for in the World Cup? They’re going to need to if they’re going to beat either Ireland or South Africa, which they will need to do to progress to the knockout stages.
World ranking: 6
A new year and a new coach. England replaced Eddie Jones with Steve Borthwick after a lacklustre attack and a defence lacking discipline saw the side go through turbulence in 2022, with losses to Argentina, South Africa and a draw against the All Blacks. The Borthwick era hasn’t gotten off to a great start, with the English finishing in the bottom half of the Six Nations for the second time in the last three years – losing to Scotland, Ireland and France. Borthwick did use the Six Nations to try some different things, so it can be expected that they will improve as the new coach finds his top squad in time for the tournament in France. Their next chance to show their fans something to be hopeful about will come in the mid-year international window, with tests against Wales, Ireland and Fiji.
Talking point
Borthwick took the opportunity to try a few things with the squad during the Six Nations. Now, it’s a matter of identifying what worked and what will help the nation get back to challenging for the title, as they did in 2019 where they lost in the final. England do have the benefit of being on the weaker side of the draw for the World Cup - avoiding any of New Zealand, South Africa, Ireland and France until at least the semifinal stages should they make it that far.
World ranking: 7
The Wallabies have seen plenty of turnover in the coaches’ box recently, the most high-profile of which saw Eddie Jones relieve Dave Rennie at the helm. Forwards coach Dan McKellar and scrum coach Petrus du Plessis also left their posts at the start of the year, and Jones has recruited a slew of new names including Dan Palmer (Brumbies), Brad Davis (London Irish) and Neal Hatley (Bath). The Jones regime will be looking to make a mark on the team quickly, with little time to work in before the tournament at the end of the year – and having seven players ruled out of the team’s first camp of the season last month was far from an ideal place to start.
Talking point
The Wallabies tied their worst-ever finish in 2019 when they were ousted in the quarterfinals. They will need to lift their game from a season ago to go into the tournament with the confidence to improve on that, with more losses than wins on their record in 2022, including dropping tests to Argentina and England - one of which they will likely meet in the quarterfinals.
World ranking: 8
Los Pumas have made it out of the group stages in three of their last four appearances at the event but missed out in 2019. They will be hunting a return to the knockout stages in 2023 and anything less would be viewed as a failed campaign in their competitive group. Several of their stars have been playing their way into strong form during the Northern Hemisphere season, with many playing in the English Premiership and Top 14 competitions.
Talking point
France has been a happy World Cup hunting ground for Argentina in the past. In 2007, they achieved their best result at the tournament with a third-placed finish. They tipped up New Zealand, Australia and England in 2022 and look to be trending in the right direction.
World ranking: 9
The second coming of Warren Gatland has not got off to a great start. The 2019 semifinalists finished second to last in the Six Nations with their only victory coming against Italy, while they lost by double digits to everyone else. Dan Biggar was their top points scorer with just 13. There was also the complication of players threatening to strike over contracts during the Six Nations. One name that stood out in Gatland’s preliminary 54-man training squad was 31-year-old prop Henry Thomas, a former seven-time England international, who can now play for Wales due to new eligibility rules. The likes of veterans Taulupe Faletau, Dan Lydiate, George North and Leigh Halfpenny will once again lead their hopes.
Talking point
Veteran Welsh duo Alun Wyn Jones (170 test caps) and Justin Tipuric (94) shocked fans last week when they announced their retirements with immediate effect. Both were named in Gatland’s preliminary squad, and just four months out from the tournament, it is likely to cause a rethink for how Gatland approaches the year ahead.
World ranking: 10
After reaching the knockout stages of the World Cup for the first time in 2019, Covid-19 settled into the world and ruined any sort of momentum Japan might have had. Since then, they have won just three of 13 games they have played – beating Uruguay twice and Portugal. They will, however, be encouraged by some close losses in 2022, particularly their 38-31 loss to the All Blacks. Jamie Joseph remains at the helm, and they will be able to put together a solid squad including formidable loosies Kazuki Himeno and Lappies Labuschagne.
Talking point
More than half of their tests since being eliminated from the 2019 World Cup were played in 2022, and Japan will get some welcome opportunities for more footy before the World Cup, with the All Blacks XV visiting for two matches against Japan XV and Japan, while Japan will also meet Samoa and Italy during the mid-year window. In a group with England, Argentina, Samoa and Chile, they’re capable of returning to the knockout stages at their best.
Former All Blacks' frustrations began before he coached his first All Blacks test.