As someone who’s been an All Blacks fan since trams were running in Queen St, of course I’m hoping they’ll win the Rugby World Cup in France.
If there’s a side that presents the biggest challenge to New Zealand taking a record fourth title, I’d suggest it’s not France,or Ireland, but South Africa. Here are four reasons for that, and why it’s bad for rugby in general.
A gift that keeps giving:
The Springboks have been trying tactical substitutions since 1996, long before they were legal, when a portly prop, Os du Randt, staggered off the field exhausted in the first test against the All Blacks in Cape Town. He didn’t claim he was injured, but was “gatvol”, Afrikaans slang for being fed up.
Being able to now legally sub huge but aerobically-challenged forwards is gradually wrecking the game, reducing rugby, at its worst, to a series of brutal, head-on collisions.
But having gym bunny, muscled giants on for just 40 minutes at a time is a godsend for the Boks, as we saw in their 35-7 demolition of the All Blacks at Twickenham.
In coach Jacques Nienaber and director of rugby Rassie Erasmus, South Africa have some serious rugby intelligence.
Having seven forwards on a reserve bench of eight at Twickenham attracted attention. Former Scotland coach Matt Williams called it “abusing” the bench concept.
But it was actually nothing new. In the 2019 World Cup final against England in Japan, the Boks had six forwards on the bench, and subbed all of them on. England’s very good forward pack was overwhelmed.
Jacques Nienaber. Photo / Photosport
Can the All Blacks match them?
If the All Blacks strike South Africa in a quarterfinal, or (fingers crossed) the final, we’ll have a tight five that can match them in the first 40 minutes.
If Brodie Retallick is restored to full fitness we’ll have three great locks, in Retallick, Sam Whitelock, and Scott Barrett. Tupou Vaa’i is a tremendous prospect, but he’s not the battle-hardened warrior that the three veterans are. My concern is that if Retallick isn’t on board, then a new Boks’ middle row in the second half, as it was at Twickenham, would be a major problem.
As with Retallick being ready to join the locks, a full recovery for prop Tyrel Lomax is also essential, as the All Blacks need their best front row of Lomax, Codie Taylor, and Ethan de Groot on the park for as long as possible. There’s promise in the props backing up Lomax and de Groot, but not the same confidence and technique.
Add Shannon Frizell to the list of hard-edged forwards New Zealand would want to be running on if they face South Africa.
Two missing out of Frizell, Lomax and Retallick, and the Boks’ bomb squad could be devastating.
Sharper refereeing would help too
He wasn’t the reason the All Blacks lost at Twickenham, but in a mediocre refereeing display, England’s Matthew Carley was so oblivious to the time-wasting of the Boks’ forwards that, with the help of constant interjections from the television match official, the first half took an hour to play.
Be very afraid. Carley is one of four English referees in the panel of 12 for the World Cup. And, by the way, the busybody TMO at Twickenham, Tom Foley, is one of just seven doing the same job at the Cup.
For a start, using two sets of bullocking forwards in a test is completely legal.
Unlike former Scotland coach Matt Williams, I don’t even think it’s against the spirit of the game. This is not underarm bowling. You play to your strengths, and while the Boks have some terrific backs, their powerhouse forwards are the foundation for their successes.
But for rugby in general it’s a disaster.
Watching freakishly big men smash the life out of each other in slow motion is what league used to be like before rules were changed to speed the game up.
Relying on World Rugby for innovation may have a touch of waiting for your bichon frise dog to learn how to speak French.
But unless a swag of rules are changed to make being an athlete more important than being a weight-lifter to succeed in rugby, the current erosion of playing and spectator numbers for the game may become a landslide.
