Michael Guerin: Flood of World Cup support for Tonga exposes bookies' blunder

Plenty of Tongan backers will be cashing in if the team's clash with the All Blacks tomorrow is closer than expected. Photo/ Steven McNicholl

Opinion

The TAB admits it has made its first mistake of the World Cup and it could be Tongan fans who are celebrating.

Although even the most enthusiastic of the Tongan fans who clogged Auckland Airport on Monday would struggle to predict an upset in tomorrow night's opening game at Eden Park, there will be plenty of punters cashing in if the game is closer than expected.

Bookies worldwide have been flooded with money for Tonga to not lie down against the All Blacks, forcing a rethink of the points start market.

Most bookmakers were originally expecting an All Black win by more than 70 points but some have even trimmed that to 63 points after support for the underdogs.

While that may be only a try either way, the difference could cost bookmakers a fortune.

"We have seen a lot of punters coming for Tonga with the points start," says TAB spokesman Mark Stafford.

"In a game like this, where one team is expected to win, the points start is a popular betting option and I think we were giving Tonga too many points start when we opened our market."

Those who snapped up the Tongans with as much as a 70-point start last week would have been smiling at the naming of the All Blacks, with experimental sides without established backline combinations always likely to struggle for cohesion on attack.

Add to that the Tongan's panel-beating defence, the All Blacks' desire to start implementing a tournament-defining game plan and the nerves associated with the opening match of a World Cup and the All Blacks winning by 65 or more points looks a big ask.

Bookmakers may have been fooled into the huge points gaffe by historical results, with the All Blacks having handed Tonga two losses close to 100 points in their latest clashes.

But Pacific Island teams are providing sterner examinations for the super powers these days as more of their players are on European or Super Rugby contracts and during a World Cup all players are released for international duty.

Just ask the Australians who were stunned by Samoa two months ago or the All Blacks who failed to gain traction against Fiji at Carisbrook.

For those who believe in miracles, the TAB is offering $50 for Tonga to pull off the greatest upset in rugby history, although you can get a $300 price for the same bet on betting exchange Betfair.

While the opening match will be the most important to Kiwi rugby fans, the home nations take centre stage from a punting perspective this weekend.

The England-Argentina match will hold millions of dollars worldwide, with a wave of money for England, who are rated $1.18 winning chances and are giving away an 11.5 point start.

But most attractive point start is the 13.5 points Wales are getting from South Africa on Sunday night.

With a wet weekend forecast for Wellington, the Welsh in good form and familiar with the South African style, the game of the weekend could be closer than many think.

Money makers

*Wales with a 13.5 point start over South Africa ($1.87)
Wales play in the Six Nations, South Africa play like a Six Nations team.

* Second half to be higher scoring than the first in the All Blacks-Tonga match ($1.62)
Things could get loose late in the match and tries will be leaked.

* Australia giving Italy a 31.5 point start ($1.87)
This same Aussie team scored 25 against the All Blacks so they can score 45 against Italy.