Wynne Gray: Even staunch Aussies downgrade World Cup chances

COMMENT

Mid-winter bushfires have been raging in Australia this week. The inadvertent pyromaniacs were the All Blacks, a side who put the sizzle under the Wallabies with their 50-21 thumping of the world champions.

The initial infernos came within hours as Sunday newspapers predicted the Wallabies' tournament campaign was in tatters.

A day or so on and former Wallaby coach turned radio commentator Alan Jones was fuelling the blaze. He respects Eddie Jones as much as New Zealand did the World Cup hosting deadline last year.

Jones, the radio jock, cracked on about it being better sometimes not to be coached at all rather than badly as was happening now.

Others such as David Campese have been firing shots at George Gregan for his lack of impact, while the bookies have lengthened the odds on the home side's trophy defence.

Leading the dousing department was none other than Chief Fire Officer John O'Neill, who has never been shy on optimism or a speaking opportunity.

O'Neill did not finger any individuals. However, at a business lunch he accepted it would be a good result if the Wallabies made the semifinals.

Now that is softening his stance a little.

He had always suggested England would be the side to beat in their fifth global event, but there had been no question of downgrading the Wallabies' chances - until now.

The Wallabies are seeded to meet the All Blacks in one semifinal, but that possibility is a mirage for many Australians after the third straight loss for their test side.

Coach Eddie Jones remains, outwardly at least, unfazed.

He considered Australia was one of six sides who would fight out the semifinal vacancies, an outcome which the Wallabies could achieve if they grasped a change in style. They had to play with more width, move the defenders around by subtle changes rather than trying to bash their way through defences.

It still looks a heck of a task for the defending champions, though.

Stephen Larkham is a great player, but is getting bashed in the five-eighths channel and could get posted to his original fullback berth, with Mat Rogers or Matt Giteau in at five-eighths.

Elton Flatley is not the answer in midfield, Morgan Turinui must get a shot soon, and Stirling Mortlock is badly missed with his injury.

There have to be questions about starting two openside flankers when an Owen Finegan or David Lyons-style player could take the early grind before the speedsters were introduced.

Jones is thinking of all these sorts of ideas, but is running out of time.

His greatest World Cup test will be the opening tournament match against Argentina.

The potential for an upset is significant, with the Pumas showing their improvement, beating France twice and being pipped at the bell by the Springboks.

Ireland and Romania rate highly as well in the Wallabies section, and an opening night hiccup on October 10 might have O'Neill rewriting his speech to excuse the ignominy of failing to make the quarters.

That could happen - but then radio jock Jones could also apologise to coach Jones.

In the last decade the Wallabies have shown a strong rugby backbone. The next few weeks may indicate if that is going to reappear for the World Cup.