KEY POINTS:
Several teams will arrive in France fancying their chances of lifting the Webb Ellis Cup.
Exclude the All Blacks from consideration and in my book only two stack up as those with realistic chances of winning it - France and South Africa.
Forget the rest. Even England and
Australia, who are probably on the next line of favouritism.
My thinking on them is simple: I don't think they are capable of winning three tough games in successive weeks, starting with the quarter-finals. Two possibly, three no.
England and Australia, the finalists four years ago, have the look of spoilers. On a given day, either can upset a big title contender. The trick is to be able to do that week after week after week.
Of the two, if pushed, I'd give Australia a better chance than England.
You can't under-estimate the Aussies. History tells us they are smart footballers and have the capacity to stir themselves on the big occasions. But I don't believe either have the required depth to see the job through.
The other team rated an outside chance are the Irish. My pick is they could be one of the big flops of the tournament.
They've got good players, and captain Brian O'Driscoll is a fine footballer, but I suspect this tournament has arrived perhaps a year too late for Ireland, which is a pity.
I wouldn't be surprised to see France and Argentina emerge from pool D into the quarter-finals.
Two teams could raise an eyebrow or two: Argentina and Scotland.
The Argentines pride themselves on a muscular pack. They love that macho, man-on-man side of the game; they have clever players at No 9 and 10 to control things and they do have outside backs who can score tries.
I'm sure they will be competitive. They thought they'd do well in Australia four years ago and disappointed. Many of their best players play in France or Britain so there will be no surprises on the mental side of things. I'll be keeping an eye on their progress.
The Scots? Their forward pack is pretty decent and they've got some handy footballers.
I'd expect they will make the quarter-finals and here's my point about them: put them in a quarter-final against another Six Nations team, where they know each other so well, and I certainly wouldn't write them off to make the last four.
Italy won't beat the All Blacks next weekend, but their coach, Pierre Berbizier, has done good work with them. Their set pieces are pretty good and they'll be fired up for a decent crack at the Scots in the critical game in pool C.
So what are the ingredients needed for a winning cup campaign?
I'd pinpoint five areas:
* Teams must have good set pieces.
* They need great defence.
* They need players capable of individual brilliance.
* They must have good, reliable kickers - and I include drop goal expertise, which invariably proves vital at the cup.
* And they must possess depth off the bench, players who can make a difference to tiring packs in the final quarter.
On drop kicks, remember the 1995 final was won in extra time by Joel Stransky's kick; Christophe Lamaison banged over two of them as a key part of the French revival against the All Blacks in the 1999 semifinal; and Jonny Wilkinson won England the cup four years ago, again deep in extra time with a dropped goal.
Now the big two.
First South Africa. They tick all those boxes, with a qualification over their front row, which has long been one of their strengths, but I don't think it is right now. Os du Randt has been a great warrior at loosehead, but he's getting to the end of the road.
They badly need their captain John Smit back and fit. His backup hooker Gary Botha is a pretty good player but Smit is the leader, he's a critical part of Jake White's plans.
Their locks are as good as any around, they've got loose forwards for Africa; Fourie du Preez is a class halfback and Bryan Habana and Co out the back can score tries against the run of play.
I believe they need a fit Andre Pretorious to run the ship at first five-eighth. He's a talented footballer. Butch James? No thanks, he's an accident waiting to happen.
Also the Boks are strong defensively. And remember, if it comes down to playing the All Blacks in the final, they are one of the few teams who have no fear of the black jersey.
Mentally, they are extremely tough in tight situations. I'd expect them to put up a strong campaign.
And then France. I know some of the leadup form has been average, and I know the All Blacks have cleaned them out comprehensively in their last few clashes, at home and away.
And yet, I can't imagine them not being up for a big performance.
I think they've got problems in the front row, they badly need the old head Fabien Pelous fit and firing at lock and Frederic Michalak running things at No 10.
With Michalak there, coach Bernard Laporte can play a different game from the stodgy fare they resort to when they use one of their leaden-footed alternatives. Michalak is a sparky guy and, in my book, absolutely crucial for the French campaign.
If the French start well and get the crowd on their side, they will be formidable. Their defence is strong, they've got some pretty good individuals and they will be massively motivated on home soil.
No one works passion better than France. I'm sure there will be many waiting for an implosion, but I have a sneaking suspicion they will go pretty close.
Laporte is off to the French Sports Ministry after the tournament. I'm sure he will want to go out with a bang rather than a whimper.
Give his players their head and we could be in for some fireworks.
A tip? The heart says France to play the All Blacks in the final; the head goes for a South Africa-All Black finale. And here the heart rules the head.
