KEY POINTS:
Power handovers have a nasty habit of going wrong. The pre-agreed succession policy in the British Labour Party brought the Conservatives roaring into play and in Australia, the Liberal Alliance is in chaos having failed to implement an alleged agreement to transfer power from John Howard to Peter
Costello.
These secret deals, where elected or appointed officials agree with a nudge and a wink to make way down the track for their trusted deputy, have a habit of going wrong because they are not legitimate. They are all about mate looking out for mate, operating outside the democratic or appointment process.
It's a shady business and something the New Zealand Rugby Union board has to be sure it is not about to endorse.
With Graham Henry maintaining radio silence, speculation will only heighten that he has a firm succession plan in place.
Steve Hansen has been a loyal deputy, first with Wales and the last four years with the All Blacks.
The Henry-Hansen axis is about mutual respect and trust. The former firmly views the latter as a potential All Black head coach of some ability.
While Hansen would be a strong candidate, the All Black job is not Henry's to award and the NZRU have to ensure Henry is not applying now with a view to offering his mate safe passage to the post in 2009.
Henry, with Hansen and Wayne Smith, is a compelling coaching package and a real chance of getting the nod ahead of Robbie Deans.
If Henry walked away Hansen would have little chance of seeing off Deans. Henry has applied, though, and has to be a real chance of keeping his job and winning a two-year extension.
But is he prepared to stay until 2011? Can one man coach an international side successfully for eight years?
Sir Clive Woodward won a World Cup at the end of his sixth year with England. By his seventh year it was apparent the team no longer responded.
Bernard Laporte managed eight years with France although they appeared to regress, one glorious 80-minutes in Cardiff aside, for much of the latter period of his tenure.
A two-year contract means that come 2009, the board will have to go through this whole palaver again.
Except it might be a case of giving the job to Hansen by default. If Deans misses out now, he'll be off - either to the Wallabies or to Europe.
Current applicants Ian Foster and Colin Cooper will probably have another crack but their Super 14 experience will not match up against Hansen's time in the test arena.
If Henry wins his job back now and quits in 2009, the stage will be set for Hansen to take the top job.
And how would New Zealanders feel if Hansen is coaching the All Blacks at the 2011 World Cup and Deans the Wallabies?
Who will have fared best?
It's down to the board - they have to be sure that Henry is in it for the long haul.
