KEY POINTS:
As a university student, I was keen on having a punt on the horses. The major event in Australia is the Melbourne Cup. The best form guide for me was the Mackinnon Stakes, a weight for-age race run over 2000m.
In it, you could generally see which horse
was primed to be at its best three days later over 3200m. It was not necessarily the winner but the horse that came home strongly.
In July 2003, the All Blacks beat the Wallabies by 29 points - they looked unbeatable - full of running, with Carlos Spencer and co in brilliant form. In August, the last game of the Tri-Nations, the Wallabies lost by four points but, like a horse preparing for the Melbourne Cup, were the ones doing their best work at the end of the game. The semifinal of the 2003 World Cup showed this.
Tonight's test at Eden Park will give us a good form guide for this year's World Cup in France.
The All Blacks, until the last six weeks, have had a great preparation. Record results have been the reward of excellent planning and coaching by Graham Henry and his co-coaches.
However, in the last few games, the gait has looked a little proppy. Key players out of form, injuries to others, unhappiness at the rotation system plus a distinct lack of execution on the field have led to a media frenzy. "They are choking again" is the common cry.
In the last game against South Africa, the All Blacks reminded me of batsmen out of form. They struggled to find the middle of the bat and, when they did, it went straight to the fieldsman. Line breaks were made but not converted. Only some brilliance by Doug Howlett and Joe Rokocoko allowed the All Blacks to slip away.
Daniel Carter is probably the best example of the All Blacks' psyche at the moment. When he has a choice of shifting the ball, or sees kicking space, he kicks. When he sees a gap he half goes, the gap closes and he tries to force the pass, resulting in a turnover. He does not know whether to get on the front foot or back foot; he is not following his instincts.
The All Blacks need to find their rhythm, find the middle of the bat. As former Australia coach Bob Dwyer has said, they have become too lateral. They need to set up a few targets, work in depth and get a roll-on off fast ruck ball. Get some confidence early and then play a little more laterally.
To do this, they need a centre or winger who can take on the line, go through the line rather than around it.
Can Aaron Mauger or Luke McAlister set up targets or do they use Isaia Toeava or Conrad Smith at 13, to do this. Hard selections need to be made. Getting these choices right is crucial. Henry has gone for McAlister and Toeava. Neither is proven at test level consistently.
The Wallabies will be close to their best, missing only Lote Tuqiri, with Chris Latham on the bench. They have closed the gap on the All Blacks.
In 2006, the All Blacks were 3 to 4 per cent better than the Aussies but the margin now is probably 1 or 2 per cent, meaning the All Blacks cannot afford to be too far off their game.
The Wallabies play their best rugby when they are confident. Around the world and particularly in New Zealand, this is sometimes referred to as arrogance. Confidence for an Aussie rugby team is knowing that no matter what the game score is, or how much time is left on the clock, if we attack well we can win the game. Some arrogance is back.
Stephen Larkham and George Gregan are now playing without fear. They have a definite number of games left for Australia and they are giving their absolute best. Gregan will apply mental pressure - remember him telling Byron Kelleher four years ago in the World Cup semi that the All Blacks had choked? - and Larkham has got his old legs ready for his few final gallops.
To beat the Aussies, the All Blacks must pressure these two and deny them space but, more importantly, thinking time. Gregan and Larkham's combined rugby minds are the world's biggest rugby bank of nous, knowledge and tactics. Put them under pressure and they have less time to think.
This game is important, as are the trophies, but no one will remember a Tri-Nations champion who gets knocked out in the World Cup semi.
The All Blacks are trotting but they need a good hard gallop. They need to show they have improvement in them and that they will be able to run the full 3200m under pressure come World Cup time.
True stayers win the Melbourne Cup and seasoned and hardened teams win the World Cup. The Aussies are maybe more advanced in their preparation but possibly have less in their tank. Get the form guides out; the result may not be as important as the potential to improve.