Andrew Slack: 'Might' is right on Wallabies question

COMMENT

I 've been handed a simple enough three-question assignment.

Question one: What do the Wallabies have to do to win tonight? Answer: Pray. (That's if recent form of the two sides is the yardstick).

Question two: What are the key factors? Answer: Win the ball, and then don't drop it.

Question three: Do I believe the Wallabies can win? Answer: Yes.

Many will mark me two out of three, but as I fend accusations of blind loyalty on my third response, let us recall the All Black versus France match in the 1999 semifinal, or the 1987 semi where the French spoiled the Wallaby party. In one-off games between talented opponents when the stakes are high, the result is never a foregone conclusion.

I spoke to the great Scottish fullback Andy Irvine after last week's unconvincing Wallaby win over the Scots and he sounded quite positive that the Wallabies would make it through to the cup decider.

The 80 minutes we had just watched was hardly compelling evidence for such confidence, but winning, he argued, is not necessarily attached to form.

If the Wallabies played the All Blacks five weeks in a row, chances are they would probably win one of those games. Can that one in five be tonight? It most certainly can.

Australian coach Eddie Jones is adamant that the problems which have beset his team will disappear.

He can't guarantee that, of course, but as coach he is hardly about to go on record and announce to the world that he is at his wits' end trying to work out why a bunch of talented individuals have suddenly turned simple tasks such as catching straight-forward passes into challenging ones.

Wallaby backs coach Glen Ella was asked at a media conference during the week how to beat the All Blacks. His response: "That's a trade secret, mate."

He was neither probed any further on what that secret might be, nor asked if the Wallaby camp had actually been let in on it themselves.

I, too, am yet to receive my dossier from Australian rugby's MI5, but if it's in the mail I expect it will have something to do with attacking the All Black midfield trio of Carlos Spencer, Aaron Mauger and Leon McDonald.

It's funny that when you ask has-been rugby types their thoughts on how games might pan out, they always gravitate to the position they played. Hookers will tell you the front-row battle is the key, halfbacks will nominate the opposing No 9 as the main man, and ex-midfielders will prattle on about 10,12 and 13. Anyway, I digress.

A lot of things - nearly all to do with ball possession - will dictate whether pressuring this trio is possible.

I happen to think Spencer and Mauger are two of the most talented rugby players in the world, and McDonald isn't half handy either, but if the Wallabies can manage to get some ball on the front foot, I think the absence of Tana Umaga could hinder the composure of the New Zealand backline, particularly in defence.

Okay, I'm clutching at straws, but I'm blowed if I'm going to just roll over. The bottom line is that with a draw out of the equation, there are three possible outcomes.

The All Blacks might win a tight one, the Wallabies might win a tight one, or the All Blacks might blow the Wallabies away. I think we can rule out a comfortable Australian win.

Allow me to return to question three. My answer is the opposite response to the one I would have proffered if asked if I thought the Wallabies will win.

All form, facts and figures point to an All Black victory, but if we knew what was definitely going to happen tonight there wouldn't be 80,000 people turning up at Telstra Stadium eager with anticipation as to what might happen.

"Might" is probably as good as it gets for the Wallabies at the moment.

* Andrew Slack is a former Wallaby skipper.