Gregor Paul: All the boxes are ticked

All Blacks during an open training session held at the Trusts Stadium before heading the the Rugby World Cup. Photo / Dean Purcell

There is reason for fans to be confident, writes Gregor Paul.

As far as these things go, the All Blacks can be about as content as they have any right to be ahead of the World Cup.

It's an inexact, potentially fraught business preparing a squad for a World Cup. There's so much that can go wrong and destroy confidence. There are typically way more reasons to be concerned than there are to be even moderately optimistic.

But the All Blacks have reached the eve of the tournament with nothing major kicking about to make anyone wonder whether their favourites' tag is a little misplaced.

It seems about right that most people think they are the team to beat. It seems a sensible and valid claim that if they play to their potential, they will be home and hosed.

The big boxes - the ones that matter - have all been ticked. The first thing is they have the personnel. There isn't an obvious area of positional weakness. By and large, they should be able to cope with injuries.

This time, they have more than just Dan Carter who can run the game from No 10. They will have to see a ridiculous run of injuries before they start worrying about midfielders or outside backs because, not only are they inundated with talent in the 31 they have taken, but there are also some seriously good test players sitting back in New Zealand.

It's a big deal to have that security - to know that their campaign can't be derailed by some headcase from Namibia who wants to take, literally, an All Blacks scalp. The All Blacks, with maybe only South Africa, have that luxury of knowing they can lose a few good men along the way and not be held hostage by the vagaries of a collision sport.

Looking at the rest of the serious contenders, that's the biggest question mark that hangs over them: can they still be the same team if they lose a certain player?

In the case of Ireland, that's a big no. Johnny Sexton is their one and only playmaker and if they lose him, they can forget it. England, too, don't necessarily look like they lack depth - their problem is that in certain positions they have a cluster of players without one standing out as being quite good enough for the task at hand.

Players are a big box. But it's what the coaches want them to do that really matters. And in this regard, again, the All Blacks have clarity about what they are trying to do.

They have built a triple threat game where they are not necessarily wed to any particular style. The goal is to find space and they don't much care whether they do that by running, passing or kicking.

As they showed in their last test against Australia, they can switch seamlessly between the three and use a combination of strategies to win games.

When they are at their best, though, it's usually with ball in hand, playing at a terrific pace with runners hugging the touchline. Few defences - actually, so far no defence - have been able to cope with them when they get that right. They have the game - and they have the players to play that game.

Form and confidence are high. They have about one million test caps, but also plenty of younger athletes with sprightly legs. What they also have is a big dose of realism.
Head coach Steve Hansen has been at pains to remind everyone that the All Blacks were in a similar place in 2007, but made the mistake of thinking they just had to turn up and the job would be done.

What the All Blacks know eight years on is that they have to be hungry. They have to want to win it and earn the right to win it. They are guaranteed four pool games and, if they finish in the top two, then get one more. That's it. That's their philosophy - they can't take anything for granted or they will be out.

All of this is great - means everyone can have a level of confidence that in two months, regardless of outcome, there will be no need to look back and start micro analysing. The preparation has been good and yet that still counts for precisely nothing.

World Cups dance to a different beat. A stroke of luck, a bad refereeing call, a random act from an opposition player can change everything.

As good as the All Blacks are, the margin between them and the next best is tiny. All it takes is one mistake and they will be home. Then there is the impact of pressure.

It's one thing to say the All Blacks should win and then, out on the field, with a billion people watching, the pressure of that gets inside players and makes them do unexpected things.

So, the certainties at this stage are that there is reason to be confident. That's all. Will they win? Who knows? Maybe. But if they don't, it shouldn't be a national disaster. They have controlled the bits that they can, worked to a plan and stayed true to it. That's about all anyone can ask.