Wynne Gray: Lions tour test for cup bid

In the middle of the Lions tour, another match will be played.

It is the curtain-raiser to the major test for the New Zealand Rugby Union this season; whether they can convince the International Rugby Board in November that New Zealand should host the 2011 World Cup ahead of Japan or South Africa.

Sometime around the second test in Wellington, the executive committee of the IRB will arrive to discuss New Zealand's bid, take in a bit of footy and assess how the country is handling the influx of visitors.

The Lions tour will be the litmus test for the bid.

The proposal will emphasise the rugby heritage, traditions and experience that a World Cup in New Zealand would deliver.

The IRB will need to balance that sentiment against the commercial benefits that would accrue from a tournament in Japan or South Africa. Japan will play the development card, emphasising their massive economy in comparison with New Zealand.

There may be benefits for New Zealand to stage a World Cup, as the Joint Bid Office told the NZRFU and the Government, but they may not be benefits for the IRB.

They are in the business of making money so they can continue redistributing proceeds to their member nations.

At the last tournament in Australia, the host union was able to bank $40 million and the IRB pocketed about $100 million.

About 65,000 visitors turned up and the bid office estimates more than 60,000 will turn up for a 2011 tournament in New Zealand.

There have been forecasts that 30,000 Lions supporters will invade the country from next month. If the nation's infrastructure creaks more than anticipated with that influx, the IRB will raise more than an eyebrow about the 2011 bid.

And is it wise to base a 2011 bid on an upgrade of Eden Park to offset the problem of medium-capacity grounds, instead of building a super stadium or going elsewhere?

The suburban Eden Park location struggles with congestion now, and there must be some anxiety about residents' reaction to an upgrade.