Andrew Alderson at the Rugby World Cup: Tries likely to dry up

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With a fortnight to go we are closer to learning whether the forces of suffocation or running rugby will triumph at the Rugby World Cup.

Carefully choreographed defence is the foundation on which modern rugby is built and has filtered through to the lesser-ranked nations. This can be viewed positively.

There have been nowhere near the blow-out results of previous tournaments (think Australia 142 Namibia 0 in 2003) even when depth was tested in the latter rounds of pool play.

However, the sight of men spread either side of a ruck waiting patiently for a halfback to decide which one-off runner to use for another recycle has resulted in a touch of ennui. The IRB might well look at this when it next reconsiders the game's laws.

More players need to commit to rucks and mauls so space is created for attack. Bursts of attacking frenzy, like the way France dispatched the All Blacks over 20 inspiring second half minutes in 1999, have been rare.

Still, the conservative tactical approach has been effective. Ahead of the quarter-finals, England have led the way defensively when it comes to the defining statistic: tries scored. They let in precisely one during the pool stages.

Georgia breached their line. England may have struggled to use their backs to significant effect in the two key pool games against Argentina and Scotland but they kept a clean sheet. Compare that to the other quarter-finalists for tries conceded: South Africa, Wales, Ireland, Argentina 3, Australia 4, New Zealand 6 and France 9.

The Springboks also showed the value of a rugged, efficient defence, particularly against Samoa when they won 13-5. Most other teams would have capitulated against that Samoan attack but the Springboks showed the mettle that gives them the most impressive record at World Cups (two titles, a semifinal and a quarter-final exit in four attempts).

The All Blacks have some way to go to match that try parsimony. The six conceded have come late in the piece - none before the 40th minute - but they rank low compared to the other top eight teams. It indicates they have the tendency to switch off once they have a buffer. Again, Twickenham 1999 springs to mind. New Zealand, Wales and Australia have been the teams to show the most attacking flair.

The All Blacks have counter-attacked at will for the most part as well as producing crisply worked plays when in control at the breakdown and set piece. However, in averaging 60 points per game, they have not been truly tested other than brief initial forays from Tonga and France.

Their running game could well be examined tonight against a solid Argentine defensive unit capable of slowing the game down.

Contrast that to the big games for Australia and Wales. Australia could not score a try in their loss to Ireland and Wales scored one apiece in the win over Samoa and loss to South Africa. It's unlikely to get any more open from here.

Those who enjoy seeing the ball go through the hands and runners unleashed had better concentrate. Current evidence suggests there might not be many such moments left in this tournament.